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    Handicapping Essay from October 2014

 

Windfalls in the Show Hole


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Windfalls in the Show Hole

For many years I’ve enjoyed having conversations on a semi-regular basis with a handful of handicappers from around the country regarding “wacky” show prices.  On several occasions several of these handicappers have forwarded me results charts, (or alerted me by phone or e-mail), whenever appropriate, and there has been a race which qualifies for a “crazy” out-of-line show mutuel.  Nearly always, these aberrant show mutuels occur of course when a heavy favorite, goes off at 3/5, 2/5 etc., and does not finish in-the-money.  When this happens, very often you will see some really wild show mutuels where the show payoff may be nearly as high as the win payoff and almost always higher than the place payoff, all of which is not only intriguing but fun too, especially if you ‘bucked’ the crowd and wagered against the heavy favorite
 
In fact, several years ago, Art Baker,
 [longtime winning handicapper who has very kindly contributed his winning and profitable ideas on handicapping by penning a couple of the 21 parts of the TIPS Methodology, (aka The TIPS Manual), and also outlining his ideas for setting yourself up for a profitable Breeders’ Cup day with his perspective on handicapping the Breeders’ Cup, featured in the March/April 2010 TIPS Report]suggested that when you are faced with a heavy odds on favorite, one approach is to find a solid value selection and include a wager, including a show wager, on that horse instead of on the heavy favorite 
 
Races, that produce wild place or perhaps more accurately, outlandish show mutuels, pique my interest on a few different levels.  In fact, I still remember the first time I saw one of these huge show mutuel payoffs: back in the 1980’s, (probably 1983), during one of my trips across the state line to the Connecticut OTB parlor.  The Connecticut OTB parlor outlets, (they numbered 4 or 5 scattered around Connecticut, not including Bradley Teletheater or the New Haven Teletheater or for that matter, the Plainfield Dog Track), were small, only 4 or 5 tellers, no chairs and audio call only of live racing.  Another feature of the old OTB parlor was when a race had been run, the staff wrote in the mutuels on a paper sheet at this outlet and put it up on the wall behind a glass case.  The one I went to most often was in Killingly, about 26 or 27 miles away, an easy drive down state highways, featuring little traffic and pretty countryside and a farm stand I grew to rely on, so overall it was a relaxing and pleasant drive.  
 
During the first 2 or 3 years of wagering at a Connecticut OTB outlet, perhaps the most attractive feature was that the Connecticut OTB pool was separate from the track pool and the New York OTB pool.  Sometimes this caused quirky payoffs just from having a different pool.  For example, a horse might pay say $10 at the track, $9.60 at NY OTB, but $11 or $12 at Connecticut.  Sometimes it worked the other way too, of course, usually in the show pool.  However, one day while I was awaiting an upcoming race at New York and anticipating listening to the audio call in the Connecticut OTB parlor, I had had another wager at Laurel and that race had just run.  The show payoff certainly was generous, and if memory serves I cashed an $8.80 show mutuel that day when the favorite ran out. 
 
A few weeks later at this OTB parlor, Laurel was the scene of the biggest show mutuel I have ever seen to this day and likely will never again be approached!!  On this day I again was awaiting a race at New York when the call of a race at Laurel came over the speakers.  I didn’t have anything going in this particular race, but wanted to listen to the call anyway.  As post time neared, the little room in this rural OTB out post once again became crowded as handicappers filtered in from the parking lot or the diner next door so as to listen to the call.  The track announcer confirmed the horses were now in the starting gate and gave the delivery we so much like to here, “And they’re off!”  Part way through the call the track announcer’s voice reached a crescendo pitch as he excitedly related that a long shot was in the lead, and then had won and predicted the tote board would be ‘lighting up!’ 
 
I overheard a buzz from a number of handicappers as apparently at least a couple of them had wagered to win on this long shot.  What I didn’t know, (since I hadn’t found a selection in the race), was that the big favorite had finished out.  The seconds ticked slowly by, people waiting in anticipation, ignorant of the odds of this long shot at the Connecticut OTB.  The long shot paid $90 to win—at Connecticut, slightly lower, $78 to win to the best of my recollection at the track.  The track show mutuel was $18, if memory serves.  However, suddenly a real buzz, punctuated with a few shouts of exclamation, overtook the parlor as one of the clerks posted the sheet with the Conn. OTB payoffs:  $90 to win, I don’t remember the place mutuel, but the show mutuel at Connecticut took everyone’s breath away----$1,000.00!  
 
Everyone was talking excitedly, (however, I didn’t see anyone in this small rural outlet cashing a huge show mutuel ticket), but of course someone in Conn. did have it!  Later on I discussed it with my father, and he suggested that likely only a few dollars was wagered by someone to show on that horse, very likely just one or two people cashed that ticket!  Like many people, I have a keener interest in the unusual or ‘outlandish’ occurrence rather than the everyday occurrences in many areas of life.  Ever since that day, I’ve been much more interested and taken with an out of kilter wild show mutuel, more so than a comparable huge win mutuel, (unless of course I wagered on said ‘winner’ such as Charming Roman, a horse who won at the now defunct Garden State Park racetrack in New Jersey, and the highest odds payoff I ever had a hand in handicapping, doing so with my father.  Roman paid $246 for every $2 win wager and the discussion is available in one of the chapters or Parts of the TIPS Methodology.  (You may order that chapter featuring Charming Roman by itself, for just $14.95 including shipping or look at special promo packs at the end of this article.)

How do these outlandish show prices impact this essay?  Simply this: our newest spot play, The Even Finishhas generated a tremendous amount of extremely positive feedback, and last week it isolated 2 selections which in turn paid some out-of-whack show mutuels.  Because of this, I thought I should share some of what I’ve been hearing from Even Finish handicappers and briefly review 2 themes that have been consistent from this group of handicappers.
 
The Even Finish is quite straightforward and easy to learn, and yet I believe it is one of the most effective methods I’ve ever written.  I owe a great deal to a fellow New England handicapper who incorporated our TIPS as a spring board and foundation to develop his handicapping approach that he then shared with me in early January 2014.  After testing and experimenting with his idea, I saw there was a great deal of promise - not only with his original premise but especially by adding a couple of tried and true pertinent factors.  Within a couple of weeks of fine tuning the method I was confident I had a very strong foundation for a viable spot play, and I was ready to take it on a test drive! 

I conducted a live workout from late January 2014 through to 3rd week of February.  I was amazed and impressed with the results, and as noted, since releasing the method I have received so many, many positive comments, some approaching hyperbole in their enthusiasm about the effectiveness of the method!!  And wait ‘til you read the 2nd paragraph that follows this sentence!!  
 
The Even Finish is a spot play in nearly every sense of the term.  Contrary to the belief of some who expect a spot play to yield 4 or 5 selections per track per day, a spot play is an approach you can use to help you analyze certain racing situations and/or conditions such as for example a distance, a surface or perhaps a claimer, maiden claimer or even a stakes race.  Ideally, you want to have an arsenal of spot plays so that you are ready for most any condition or situation that comes your way.  You may have memorized some of them or have them printed before you.  Various spot plays may yield 1 or 2 selections per track per day, and days where you find more selections than that at a given track for any given spot play are typically the exception rather than the rule.  
 
However, what is really surprising and so terrific about the Even Finish is that one of the recurrent themes I’ve heard from a host of handicappers is the incredible ACTION it produces!  Perhaps because it is so quick, straightforward and easy to use, you can find numerous selections readily.  Several handicappers have related how very quickly they have found 4, 5, 6 or even more selections from among their two or three favorite tracks.  One southwestern handicapper sent his selections to me and one day he found 18 selections!
 
This brings me to the other recurrent theme from all the handicappers who have called or emailed me, and that is namely very often you get long shot mutuels not just to win, but often place and show as well!  During the workout at New York in the winter, despite some small fields due to weather related scratches, the mutuels were still terrific!
 
The southwestern handicapper who related his 18 Even Finish Method selections this day, showed a profit to win of   30%   that day!  His win % was a bit lower than normal, (22% compared to the more usual 27-29%), but his average mutuel was $11.67 compared to the average of $10.02 for the workout. 
 
During the past week, the Even Finish isolated two long shots that paid a couple of those ‘huge’ show prices of which I am so enamored.  The first one occurred at Belmont, the 8th race on October 12, 2014, and the same southwestern handicapper who had found 18 selections using the Even Finish a few days earlier, found a doozy in this race, #7 St. Moose.
 
This was an optional claiming race, carded at 1 1/16 miles for 3 year olds and up.  Scratches whittled the field to 6 horses.  I was using another approach for this same race and isolated a different entry as my selection and somehow missed the horse, St. Moose, that the southwestern handicapper had isolated using the Even Finish.  Here is what I gave out in my daily selection service
 
October 12, 2014
BELMONT – 8th Race
APPRX POST - 4:20 p.m.
 
SELECTION:
# 3 EASTER GIFT
10-1ML
1/2 UNIT WIN IF 7-1 OR >
3.5 UNIT SHOW
 
EVEN $ Morning Line Favorite:
#6 CONSTITUION
 
I include the likely favorite for folks who anticipate wagering on an exacta, and occasionally I will include another contender or two if it is a contentious race.  However, unless you can absolutely and with credible reason ‘throw out’ the favorite, you need to include it when wagering on exactas as the favorite is in the exacta approximately 53% of the time. 
 
As noted, I was using another approach on this race, and the selection I released to clients was Easter Gift.  At 10-1, Gift looked to be a solid shot to hit the board, and thus I was recommending the bulk of any wager on Gift be in the show hole.
 
Gift was an excellent selection, especially compared to the heavy favorite and Todd Pletcher trained Constitution, which was pegged at even money in the Morning Line.  Whenever possible, especially when there are enough favorable handicapping signals, like most handicappers, I want to go for a commodity offering value, and at 10-1 Easter Gift seemed to be doing just that, meaning offering value.
 
Although I do not watch every race live, I had the time to do so this day, and sure enough, Constitution was taking the lion’s share of the betting money.  His odds slipped lower, 4/5 and then to 3/5, hovering there for a bit.  Obviously, in a 6-horse field you want to avoid the heavy favorite if you can.  On the other hand, as post time neared Easter Gift’s odds remained decidedly low at 9/2, and thus I didn’t think he was worth a win wager.  In another couple of minutes, Constitution dropped lower, to 2/5 and briefly even lower to 1/5!  I made a 4-unit show wager then-and-there on Gift, thinking I might get $2.70 or $2.80.  Other than Constitution, Gift appeared to be the strongest entry.  With a couple of minutes to post, I again examined the odds: Gift was down to 7/2, but Constitution stayed at 2/5. Then I looked at the show pools—with $100,000 bet in the show pool, $65,000 of that was bet on Constitution!  Watch out for ‘bridge jumpers!’ 
 
I watched the race and saw Constitution stumble at the start, but he seemed to recover quickly, taking the early lead and holding it until the 2nd call.  As often happens with a horse stumbling they may rush to contention but then afterwards are unable to hold their place and drift back, and according to the chart, Constitution did so in the stretch as he “was side by side with Spa City Fever, but drifted steadily back, (unable to hold one of the top 3 spots), finishing 4th.”  On the other hand, Gift came on strong and won at just over 3-1.  What I was thinking of course was that with a huge favorite, one who had garnered nearly 70% of the show pool money, was “oh-oh—get ready for some wacky show mutuels.”
 
I imagine nearly everyone was thinking the same thing, especially the southwestern handicapper who handicapped and wagered a portion of his bet on the show hole on #7, St. Moose who qualified as an excellent Even Finish selection and went off as the longest shot on the board, 23-1! 
 
Well, the show mutuels reflected the fact that Constitution finished out, and thus the money wagered on him in the show pool would be dispersed on the top 3 finishers!
 
Easter Gift paid $8.70 $4.70 $6.90, and of course I was well pleased, as I hope were any clients who received the selection did as well. 
 
On the other hand, the southwestern handicapper was tickled pink when he saw how much his Even Finish spot play selection paid.

  • #7 St. Moose returned $10.60 place, but nearly double that with a $19.80 show mutuel!

Just a couple of days later, on Wednesday, 10-22, I faced another small field, just 6 horses in the opener at Delaware Park.  A late scratch of Figtown Rambler reduced the field further to 5. 
 
There were 4 horses who passed the main contender screen for the Even Finish method.  However, when using the secondary factors it was clear that 2 horses, Dreamin of Bucks (7/5 ML) and Mummi’s Hope (7/2 ML), appeared to be head and shoulders above the others.
 
I decided on a 1-unit win and 4-unit show wager on Mummi’s Hope, reasoning that she would be offering more value. 
 
I watched the race, and Dreamin of Bucks took nearly all the money, going off at 3/5, and Mummi’s Hope, who I thought might be off at 5/2 or even 3-1, was off at 2-1.  As the big favorite, Bucks broke 4th in the 6-furlong affair, and then the track announcer intoned in a very surprised voice just after the first quarter, that “Dreamin of Bucks is now your trailer and will have to rally past them all to get the money.”  Meanwhile, Mummi’s Hope was among the leaders but was behind the big long shot, How Cool is He, and not seeming to get closer.  However, as they rounded the turn for home, Mummi’s Hope turned it on and rallied to win at 2-1, big favorite, Dreamin of Bucks managed 4th, and 2 long shots, Spare the Kid and How Cool is He, rounded out the top three.
 
Spare the Kid paid $5.20 and $10.20, while fellow long shot, How Cool is He, returned $8.40 show!  These are just dynamite show mutuels, especially for a 5-horse field!
 
My interest was with Mummi’s Hope, and she did not disappoint, (well maybe a teeny bit in the win hole), with her payoffs of $6.40 win, $3.60 place, but as you might imagine, I was extremely pleased with the $5.20 show mutuel, and once again, especially in a 5-horse field!
 
The Even Finish method can quickly, and often frequently, isolate strong, well meant selections who have an excellent chance to win or finish in-the-money, and oftentimes at long shot odds.
 
In fact, as we were doing some final editing for this piece on the weekend, (10-19-2014), I heard from yet another fellow New England handicapper.  He had just received his Even Finish method in the mail on Saturday and found a few selections quickly.
 
He wagered $20 to win on three of them and collected on two of those—the first returned $12.40 to win, and the second one returned $16.40 to win, while the third ran out.  That is a profit of $248 the first day!  His return paid for the price of the method many times over in just one afternoon!  
That could be you!! 
 
We hope you find this essay informational in improving your handicapping and money management, particularly in certain situations such as those described above.
 
As I noted above, The Even Finish Spot Play Method is one that nearly everyone has enthusiastically related that it is quick, easy to use and best of all, finds horses that win and finish in the money a high % of the time, often at long shot odds.

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