Handicapping Essay: The Even Finish Express
      An east coast handicapper throws me a challenge, and the results are in!

Serendipitymaking a positive discovery by unforeseen or accidental means. How my father loved that word! As a lifelong educator, he, (Tom Worth), was perhaps at his happiest and most fulfilled when his students understood something he was trying to teach. On several occasions he described to me how finally a lesson clicked for a student when he taught it in an unconventional manner he had discovered by chance. Whenever he experienced serendipity in any form he was on cloud 9.

During the last couple of weeks I had been trying to decide on a topic for the next website handicapping essay when thankfully serendipity stepped in via a few emails I received from an east coast handicapper regarding our Even Finish Spot Play. We had exchanged a number of emails because he wanted to be sure he was using the method correctly as he wasn't getting the same results as reported by other handicappers. He preferred to communicate via email rather by phone, and as noted, we went back and forth a number of times on how to use the Even Finish.

He finally emailed a request to hire me for a nominal fee to analyze an entire card of his choosing with the objective being to isolate selections using the Even Finish Spot Play and then email him a report of my results along with commentary of how I followed the method to isolate any Even Finish selections I spotted on the racecard. Of course I agreed and awaited his choice of racecard. I had no idea which track or date he would choose. I then received it via email: June 19, 2017 at Parx.

I have followed Parx for many years. However, over the last few months I had gradually stopped examining Parx. There were several trainer scandals including a couple of very high profile drug violations involving top trainer Ramon Preciado, and that combined with the then winter weather cause me to stop paying close attention to Parx. In fact, when I received the request to examine Parx's race card for 6-19-2017, I had not looked at that racetrack for more than a few times since about mid-March.  

After agreeing to examine a racecard, I experienced a brief moment of trepidation: NOT about the method, as I continue to receive a lot of positive feedback on the Even Finish, nearly four years since we published it! Rather, I wondered if the date chosen by my client would present any unusual racing conditions that would limit the number of Even Finish selections or if it could possibly be an off day for the method, as we all know that not every day is picture-perfect. However, these were just passing thoughts, ones on which I did not dwell as I looked forward to handicapping the card.

Before we get to how the Even Finish fared at Parx on June 19, 2017, I'd like to point out that like many handicapping approaches/spot plays that are based on solid handicapping factors and contender screens, results for the Even Finish will be the most consistent and profitable if you have only one entry in the field who passes the contender screen. Not only was this the case during my live workout for the Even Finish method itself, but over the years the feedback from other handicappers have confirmed this.

In the the live workout results within the method itself, the win % was 37% when there was only one entry who passed the main contender screen compared to a 30% win rate when there were 2, 3 or 4 horses who passed the contender screen.

ROI in the win slot for the “single” qualifiers in the Even method was 210%!  Overall, the ROI to win was a very respectable 53%, but 210% ROI is nearly 4 times higher.

Collection rate to show for singles was 85% compared to 75% for all selections. ROI to show with singles more than doubled from 11% to 24%!

In light of these terrific results and since it only takes a couple of minutes at most to examine a race using the paper and pencil version of the Even Finish, why not stick only with the “singles.”

In getting back to my Even Finish challenge, as noted I was looking forward to examining Parx to see what the method would yield. While the method has continued to perform well, I also know that on any one day, at any one track, anything can happen, and that goes for any kind of method or spot play. In other words, the thought did occur to me that quite possibly I wouldn't even find a selection. But of course I was up for the challenge! 

Did I find any selections on the race card presented to me by my client? Yes indeed! The results were terrific! We do not have the space to examine the past performances here, though I may do so in an upcoming TIPS Report issue. In this essay we’ll take a look at the selections I isolated at Parx on June 19, 2017 using the steps as outlined in the Even Finish Spot Play Method.

First, let me note that when an entry passes the main screen, the method instructs you to rate as: EV+ (highest), EV or EV- (lowest).

Even Finish Selections at Parx on June 19, 2017

1st Race
Jeddo, 2-1 in the Morning Line, (ML)
Single qualifier (strongest kind, and meaning no other horse in the field passed the screen)
EV+
$2.60 Show

2nd Race
No entries passed the main contender screen. No selection.

3rd Race
No entries passed the main contender screen. No selection.

4th Race
3 entries pass the main screen:

#4 Transparent, 6-1 ML
EV-
Has 
77 Qualified Beyer Figure, lowest of the 3; and lowest trainer win % at 11%. 

#6 Picozza, 10-1 ML
EV-
Has 
91 Qualified Beyer Figure, #1 ranked, (I consider QBF's within 2 - 3 points as tied); trainer win % is 14%.

#7 Wendy, 6-1 ML
EV-
Has 
89 QBF, essentially tied with #6; trainer has highest win % at 15% and she also shows a flat bet profit in 3 categories so I would definitely say that the tiebreaker goes to Wendy, and thus I selected the #7 as the EV selection.

#7, Wendy, won and returned:
$31.40 Win, $12.80 Place, $5.40 Show

5th Race
No entries passed the main contender screen.  No selection.

6th Race
Grey By You
Single qualifier, after Secretive scratched
Finished 4th

7th Race
#4 Vanidosa, 12-1 ML
Single qualifier
EV- (lowest of 3 versions of Even Finish rating)
Finshed 3rd, paid $9.20 Show

8th Race
Two entries pass the main screen:

#8, Northern Screamer, 2-1 ML
EV+ 
86 QBF

#5, Pretty Venezuala, 12-1 ML
EV-
77 QBF

#8, Northern Screamer, is the selection
#8 Won and paid:
$3.60 Win, $2.60 Place, $2.10 Show

(I would note that #5 ran a good race, finished 4th at over 50-1, just one spot out of the $.)

9th Race
3 entries pass the main screen all with the same level of the contender screen:

#3 Red Rocket Express, 12-1 ML
67 QBF
I eliminated this contender due to poor QBF which is far below the other two entries who passed the screen: 17 points below #4 and 22 points below #5.  

#4 Malekeith, 12-1 ML
80 QBF
QBF is lower than the #5's but has a trainer who is incredibly successful with a 31% win rate for the year.
Malekeith was my selection. 

#5 Pachang A Party, 5/2 ML
89 QBF
Trainer has 12% win rate.
I usually give the nod to better trainer, but I would not fault someone who went with the better Beyer/(Bris Speed figure).  

#4 finished 3rd and paid $8.80 to show.

Even without the 9th race

What a terrific day for the Even Finish Spot Play Method!  

There were Even Finish "singles" selections in the 1st, 6th, and 7th races. The single in the 6th ran out, but the remaining two 'singles' finished in-the-money, in the 1st and 7th race, with show returns of $2.60 and $9.20. Thus there was a fantastic flat bet profit, ROI of 96%, in the show hole for all three “singles.” In fact, with show mutuels including a $5.40, $8.80 in the9th race and $9.20 in the 7th race, the show ROI for six selections, (including the 6th race which ran out of the $), the show ROI was 134%!

When you have more than one qualifier and thus need to separate two or three entries, you may have an opportunity to get some huge long shots, but you do need to follow the steps of the method and occasionally make a judgment call.

We have received many emails and positive calls with excellent observations about using the Even Finish Spot Play, including some who wrote me on how he or she tailored the Even Finish to his or her own style. Some of these calls and emails have included money management suggestions and results.

Perhaps the simplest, most straightforward and profitable money management approach a New York handicapper shared with me in an email from earlier this year is below. We have shared this before, but his report is absolutely first rate and is very valuable. Therefore, we will share it again, including his incredible ROI, earned from his straightforward but very profitable money management approach, coupled with the potentially powerful Even Finish Spot Play

Below is his email from earlier this year:

           -----Original Message-----
From: Joe <f......@gmail.com>
To: tipsreport <tipsreport@aol.com>
Sent: Wed, Jan 4, 2017 8:51 pm

Jon....purchased your Even Finish method last month. I could not be more pleased. For the month of December over 6 tracks I wagered on 87 races with 29 winners and 77% of the selections finishing in-the-money. I wagered 10-20-x on all horses going off at 4 to 1 or less and 5-10-20 if they were 9/2 or more. I cleared $1,648.77 of the selections were singles. Thanks and keep up the good work. Faztrack Joey

The above results are indeed excellent. You can see just how well the Even Finish performed—especially when he stuck with the “Singles.”

If you are looking to increase your profits with consistency, then now is the time to jump aboard the Even Finish express so you can earn more $$$$$

Click into this link to order.

As always, please call us at 401-921-5158 or email Jon at tipsreport@aol.com with any questions.

*Please email mary@worthhandicapping for S&H outside of the USA.

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Jon Worth  Tom Worth Publishing Co.  PO Box 7054  Warwick, RI 02887-7054

401-921-5158 eastern time  ♦  jonworth@worthhandicapping.com

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