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The Kentucky Derby 2014
The Kentucky Derby 2014
May 2, 2014
The Kentucky Derby:
Interesting Facts About This Historic Race plus
My Advice on How to Enjoy This Special Day
by Jon Worth of worthhandicapping.com
This essay offers two topics:
1. Interesting Historical Facts on the Kentucky Derby
2. Best Strategies for an Enjoyable Derby Day
Triple Crown season is here with the Kentucky Derby slated for tomorrow. This essay is more in the ‘fun’ vein and does not include an analysis on any particular race. While I was doing research on a related subject, I learned a few facts about the Triple Crown which I must confess I was completely ignorant. Though I suspect many of you are knowledgeable of Triple Crown history, I’d like to share with you what I learned just in case that you, like me, weren’t familiar with this aspect of horse racing history. Last weekend, I happened to mention these facts to a couple of handicappers during separate phone conversations, and both handicappers, who are avid racing fans, expressed pleasant surprise upon hearing my report and appreciated the information. Thus I thought I’d share this with you along with my thoughts from a handicapping perspective regarding the Triple Crown, and the Kentucky Derby in particular.
Nearly all handicappers, as well as casual racing fans, take some level of interest in the Kentucky Derby. On the national TV newscasts after the Derby has run, nearly all report, at the very least, who won. Some usually include a photo of the winning connections, or jockey and horse, while others may play a few seconds of video tape from the race. And others may include a brief story, especially if there is a unique aspect to the winning horse, owner and/or trainer. These facts suggest that the Kentucky Derby is at some level part of our national shared consciousness.
As early as February, pundits begin sharing their thoughts on various horses in regard to their potential chances in the upcoming Derby. Hype and interesting backstories also help to promote the race, although a few months before the event itself may be a bit on the early side, that is for anyone but a diehard devotee. Dedicating a great deal of time in doing preliminary research on horses who may not even still be in the hunt after the series of “Derby Prep Races” are contested may be a fun diversion for a time, but being fully immersed in my daily handicapping and racing research as well as my family life I haven’t been following them that closely. Now, I certainly do get excited about the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby in particular since that is the ‘kickoff’ race, but I simply choose not to invest too much emotional or intellectual time beforehand, until that is, I know which horses will be in the running.
Thinking of “running in the Kentucky Derby” brings back pleasant memories of when my late father, (Tom), who was always excited about the Kentucky Derby, and I watched the race together for a good many years. There was this one time in early 1990’s when we were watching and as the bell rang and the gate went up, my dad commented, “for crying out loud, it’s like a stampede!” I recently checked back through some of the results charts to see if I could learn which year he made his observation, and found it could have been one of a few years in the early '90s. The 1991 Derby had what we considered at the time a large field of 16 contenders. In the 1992 Derby, (which was among the oldest of the charts readily available), 18 entries filled the starting gate, (the race was won by Lil E Tee). And 1992 may indeed have been the start of the trend when it became the norm to have many, many horses entered in the Derby, whether they had a legitimate shot or not. Naturally, overly large fields can make for traffic issues and difficulty in finding running room.
For the next few years, every race had either 18 or 19 horses. Then in the late 1990’s there were a couple of years where the field dwindled down to a more manageable size, (13 in 1997 and 15 in 1998), before exploding back to 18 and 19 horse fields. It seems that every year since there are 18, 19 and even 20 horse fields competing in the ‘run for the roses.’ These huge fields may add yet another level of difficulty and roadblock to the already challenging road a post time favorite faces in order to win the race, which can be a difficult enough task on its own!
Although a few post time favorites have won the Derby since 2000, (Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000, who paid $6.60 win; Big Brown in 2008, $6.80 win; Smarty Jones in 2004, $10.20 win; and Street Sense in 2007, $11.80 win), perhaps it takes too much out of these athletes to beat so many rivals and negotiate through so much traffic, so much so that in the end, they do not have enough “left in the tank” to prevail in all three legs of the Triple Crown. In fact, it has now been 35 years since the last Triple Crown winner, making this the longest amount of time between Triple Crown winners! As we all know, Affirmed was the last great equine athlete who entered this prestigious circle, and many of us wonder, will there ever be another horse who can win the Derby, the Preakness Stakes AND the Belmont Stakes? And this brings me to the second point of the essay, namely a brief examination of the Triple Crown itself.
The Triple Crown did not even become the ‘Triple Crown’ as we know it today, (and as an official starndard), until 1931. Previous to 1931, there had been just one horse who prevailed in all three Triple Crown races, namely one Sir Barton in 1919. In some years prior to 1931 it was impossible for a horse to have won all three races which comprise the Triple Crown, and the reasons had nothing whatsoever to do with the athletic potential of the horses entered – it was due to scheduling!
For example, there were a few years when Belmont Park was closed, so obviously there was no Belmont Stakes for those years, although there were a couple of years when Aqueduct stepped in and the ‘Belmont’ was run over the Aqueduct track. In addition, prior to 1931 there were some years when the Preakness ran before the Kentucky Derby. There were also at least several years prior to 1931 when the Preakness and the Kentucky Derby, or when the Preakness and the Belmont ran on the same day! Obviously, when two of the events of the “Triple Crown’ are being contested the same day, it is impossible for one horse to win all three races!
Other than Sir Barton, the other 10 Triple Crown winners came in clusters during the same decade: 3 horses won in the 1930’s; 4 horses won in the 1940’s; and in the 1970’s another 3 horses turned the trick. Now, we are experiencing our longest ‘drought’ ever of Triple Crown winners, 35 years since 1978. Of course there were two years in a row when Real Quiet and Charismatic came close by winning the Derby and the Preakness, but weren’t able to close the deal by winning the Belmont.
Having noted all of the above, the Kentucky Derby is a terrific spectacle and event, and I will, along with many, many others, handicap the race. Despite it being the most prestigious singular race during the U.S. calendar year, I treat it like most other races, meaning I do my best at handicapping it, but also do my best not to get too emotionally wrapped up in it so as to avoid getting caught up in the excitement and going overboard wagering on it, and I gently advise the same for you.
Longtime TIPS Report subscribers know that Milton Weinblatt had, especially during about the last 10 years or so, devised sensible approaches for the event that allowed him to have something going with a strong chance to collect -- whether it was a show, exacta or superfecta wager -- on a well meant horse, and he did what your goal should always be, and that is to turn a profit. Your goal shouldn’t be to have “bragging rights” for a day or to wager on a super long shot based on a whim. Should you decide to wager on a super long shot it should be because you’ve done your handicapping homework, and it has helped you isolate a legitimate contender, one that the betting public has overlooked such they did with Mine that Bird or Giacomo, both previous Derby winners who paid over $100 to win. Or, you have selected a couple of long shots because the race itself will be “wide open” and that the long shots have a decent chance to finish in-the-money, and the probable expected favorite is not an overwhelmingly strong horse.
Now, just like any other handicapper, I prefer a long shot to a favorite, but of course I first want to handicap the field to decide if a long shot is well spotted, fit and ready to compete in not just a highly competitive field but also in a heavily crowded field! When Secretariat won the Kentucky Derby he did so in a field of 13. Now of course I’m not saying by any means that Secretariat couldn’t do it in today’s big fields for certainly Secretariat was an exceptionally strong, powerful and competitive horse, a very special one indeed! What I am saying is that the fields have grown in number, and these huge fields make it very difficult for even today's best horse in the race to not just win the Derby but to also win the next two legs of the Triple Crown. In order to beat 18 or 19 opponents, it may take too much out of a horse to beat such a large field, and subsequently then have enough left “in the tank” to win the Preakness and the Belmont.
Practically as soon as the Derby winner has crossed the wire and the post-race interviews are completed, the speculation will begin as to whether this “will be the year” when a horse is able to win all three legs of the Triple Crown.
My overall take and advice toward the Kentucky Derby isn’t as jaded as some of the handful of professional handicappers I’ve known over the years. A couple of them rarely even watch the race, let alone handicap it, while a couple of others I know do enjoy watching the Derby immensely, although one of them, G.F., rarely handicapped the Derby during his years as a pro. He simply loves horses, even loves just watching them in their morning workouts. The other one, in addition to watching the Derby, he enjoys handicapping it as well, although he doesn’t ever speak of making his usual triple figure wagers on the Derby. I believe he keeps his wagers much reduced for these special events.
I certainly will handicap the race and suggest that you do so only if you enjoy the handicapping and keep a planned budget. I advise against getting too emotionally wrapped up in the one race or going overboard on wagers.
In terms of how Milton would make this a winning day for himself, he would make a medium size wager on a horse he believed had a good chance, usually in the $40 to $50 range and structured as $10-$0-$30 or $10-$0-$40. He figured, (correctly so), that if that selection came in at least 3rd, the payoff would be generous enough, ($3.80, $4, even $5 or a bit higher), so that even if the win wager ran out he would still make a profit. On occasion he would use the Profitline rankings to guide him and then include the top four Profitline ranked horses in an exacta, (usually front and back), with his selection for an additional $8. In this manner, he had something going without going overboard. During his last few years he relied more on Profitline and less on feverish in-depth handicapping, and thus he wasn’t straining his eyes too much, (after all he was in his mid-90’s by this point!). This way Milton enjoyed the race immensely and also had something going without going overboard in terms of time invested, emotional investment or monetary investment. (TIPS Reports that illustrate Milton’s winning strategies are cited below.)
I wish you all an enjoyable Derby day while at the same time practicing emotional and fiscal restraint. It should be a fun day, yet at the same time it should be just like any ‘work’ day, meaning handicap & wager as you normally would – it’s no time to do anything wild!
For helpful information:
The May/June 2012 TIPS Report features one of Milton’s approaches to handicapping Kentucky Derby Day and weekend, including the Friday before as well as the Kentucky Oaks.
The March/April 2010 TIPS Report features excellent commentary and insights on handicapping the Breeders’ Cup by Art Baker. Long time TIPS handicappers will no doubt recognize Art from his very astute ideas and contributions dating back to the 1980’s.
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