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Less is More Handicapping Essay
Less is More Handicapping Essay
Aug 19, 2014
Less is More
by Jon Worth of worthhandicapping.com
The seeds for this discussion were sown many years ago, during one of my many conversations with Milton Weinblatt with “input” from legendary handicapper and noted turf writer Ray Talbot, which I will explain later in the article. Let’s first talk about Milton and his legacy in the “Tom Worth community of handicappers.” He was a top notch handicapper and frequent contributor to our bimonthly TIPS Report handicapping publication. He was conservative yet profit-oriented in his handicapping approach, and he knew not just how to handicap, but he also knew how to make money from handicapping. There is a difference! And over the course of many years of knowing him, I saw him go from being a show bettor, (and as noted, making money as such!), to one who constructed exotic wagers with great success. Needless to say, he was quite a successful handicapper!
One of my first discussions with Milton was when he sent us his report in the spring of 1995 on how he fared using Show-a-Profit, a method we had published in 1994. Show-a-Profit is geared for handicapping maiden races, and Milton had used it exclusively for his handicapping during a 3-plus week stay in Las Vegas in November and December 1994. Using Show-a-Profit and wagering strictly to show, Milton’s initial bankroll of $500 grew to $1,229.00! He cleared a profit of $729.00 — excellent considering he was wagering to show. This was a tremendous profit for him, but perhaps his even bigger, or more accurately, his more difficult achievement was that he was in a Vegas casino race book with ready access to numerous racetracks, and yet he stuck to the “cream of the crop” of his Show-a-Profit selections and didn’t go “hunting for action.” Milton averaged fewer than 3 selections per day! And as you can see, “less” really did translate into more - more profit that is! Some days he found more than 3 selections, some days fewer, overall though the average was just less than 3 selections per day. We published Milton’s report on how he fared using Show-a-Profit in the Sept/Oct 1995 issue of the TIPS Report, and I believe it is must-have reading, even if you don’t wager to show. Milton’s self-discipline is inspiring. In this issue you will also see how at one point Milton had 30 consecutive winning show wagers using Show-a-Profit!! Show-a-Profit is great for parlays. (If you don't yet have this must-have method, take advantage of a special package of Show-a-Profit: A Maiden Method, the Sept/Oct 1995 and the Jan/Feb 1997 TIPS Report issues for $34.95 with free S&H to USA; other countries please email mary@worthhandicapping.com for S&H.)
In mentally recalling Milton’s selections, there is one day in particular, December 6, 1994, which stuck out in my mind because Milton found just one selection on that day, and I remember the horse’s name to this day without rereading his workout: I’m Wide Awake, who ran at the Meadowlands. This was a time before there was widespread and available simulcasting near our respective home towns, or phone or internet simulcasting, and for Milton to stick to our Show-a-Profit method, with so many tracks available to him while in Las Vegas illustrates the value and profitability of sticking with fewer and stronger selections. For the record, Milton’s lone selection on that day, I’m Wide Awake, won and paid $10.20, $5.00 and $3.80 on the end, and thus he nearly doubled his money that day.
Milton explained to me that he wasn’t in Las Vegas to “chase selections” in an effort to find as many as selections as possible so that he “could have something going,” as it were. He took his handicapping seriously, as no doubt you folks reading this do as well. He further explained that his handicapping “modus operandi” was that he did all his handicapping in the morning or occasionally the evening before. He then would place all his wagers at one time and leave the casino. He was wagering a % of bankroll, and show only.
In fact, to this day, the issue which profiles Milton’s three week-plus Las Vegas stay and two other issues of the TIPS Report where the spotlight shines brightly on show wagering are among our 5 most popular issues ever, and we’ve been publishing the TIPS Report since June 1993! In case you are curious about the other two issues which are among our top five, they are as follows.
The January/February 1997 TIPS Report features a spot play that Milton developed, called the “No Form” spot play, a method that quite literally does not require the Racing Form or the past performances – it’s was quite inventive on Milton’s part – you should check it out!
The other issue sits close to our hearts! It is the July/August 2005 TIPS Report and in it we profile our then 3rd grade daughter and how she doubled her bankroll during a trip to Saratoga. We visited Saratoga for three days, and our little girl took to handicapping like a fish to water! She did just the basics of handicapping, and yet as noted she doubled her bankroll, (which was truly her own money), and was quite pleased with her profit. We were actually in the area for close to a week and since she was and still is an avid reader, she used her earnings to purchase books at one of the used & rare book stores in downtown Saratoga.
In getting back to the issue at hand, the July/August 2005 issue is another example of how “less is more.” When our little girl was studying the past performances at Saratoga, she wasn’t looking to make a fortune or find a horse in every single race; rather, she was fascinated by the process of handicapping, worked methodically, and in the end was quite satisfied with her earnings from three days of “work!” (Here we are now, 9 years later, and at the end of the month we are packing the car and driving her up north to college! She graduated in the top 5% of her class, and we are quite proud of her as her "Grandpa Tom" would have been.)
(You can find info on how to order any of the TIPS Report issues mentioned in this article at the end of this essay.)
Now, in getting back to Milton, he was a very “bottom line kind of guy,” and if he wasn’t showing a profit, he devised something which did. For example, Milton developed, as mentioned earlier, his “No Form” handicapping method during a period of a few months when he had difficulty finding the Daily Racing Form on a regular basis during the Calder and Gulfstream meet. And he made money with it! I’ve received many comments throughout the years from various handicappers on how they have used it from time to time with good results, and in fact I had a couple of people mention the “No Form” spot play to me during the past couple of weeks.
Similarly, in one of his handicapping essays on Money Management, “The Professional Way to Play,” legendary handicapper and noted turf writer Ray Talbot suggested an approach wherein the handicapper be immersed in practicing self-discipline when it comes to wagering, and Milton truly epitomized the “less is more” philosophy.
If you would like to read my take on Mr. Talbot’s money management perspective, I invite you to read the March/April 1999 issue of the TIPS Report. You may order it by using any one of the links at the end of this article. Talbot outlined his no nonsense businesslike philosophy for earning a profit and setting a goal in his essay, and his logic and approach as you might think are impeccable. Perhaps difficult to follow, but it is an excellent profit oriented and focused on making money viewpoint.
Now, as you would expect, in my daily selection service I do my best to find horses that finish in-the-money for my clients. For example, a couple of Saturdays ago at Saratoga, (August 2, 2014), I gave out 5 selections. This included 3 winners, and all 5 finished in-the-money. However, it was a comment from the previous day’s selections, Friday, August 1, 2014, that had me thinking of Milton Weinblatt, Ray Talbot, and the “less is more” philosophy. You can find my comment below highlighted in yellow in the section for the Saratoga selections.
Below are the selections I gave out on 8-01-14; however, first there is a recap of selections from Thursday, July 31, 2014:
Good morning,
Today, Friday August 1, 2014
Yesterday, Thursday, July 31, 2014, we had a pretty decent day. Here is a recap:
Delaware Recap
2nd Race
Indebted won powerfully, however, was hammered at windows, plummeted from 8-1 ML to 6/5 favorite. Mutuels were $4.60 win, $3.40 place & $2.80 show
7th Race
Selection #4 won with nice mutuels of $10.80 win, $5.20 place & $4 show
Recommended exacta with #9 came in $34
Finger Lakes Recap
1st Race
#3 Won
Mutuels were $5.40 win, $3 place & a paltry $2.10 show
Saratoga Recap
Passed 2nd race, #1 finished last
4th Race, selection scratched
5th Race, selection scratched
6th Race, selection #1 was embroiled in 3 horse speed duel & finished 4th
Horse to watch:
#3 Persuasive Devil finished 2nd
Mutuels were $5.50 place & $4 Show
I did follow my own suggestion and retained 85% of my profit for the day, and drastically reduced my wagers in the 5th at Del Mar, and this selection ran out.
*******************************************************
Okay, here we go.
Here are today’s selections for:
Friday, August 1, 2014
(From time to time, I give out complimentary selections for tracks not normally not covered.)
Finger Lakes
1st Post Starts at 12:35 Eastern
1st Race
Selection = #1 Entry
Preferable if both go, if only does, preferable that its 1a going.
5-1 Morning Line
For myself, 1 Unit to Win if 7/2 or greater
5-6 Units to Show
4th Race
Selection = #2 Dorian Will
7th Race
Selection is a long shot to keep an eye on
#6 Ali
6-1 Morning Line
For myself, 1/2 Unit to Win if 5-1 or greater
2-3 Units to Show
Complimentary Selection for:
Del Mar
1st Post starts at 7pm eastern time
4th Race
#3 Pulmarack
5-1 Morning Line
----------------------------------------------
Woodbine
1st Post starts at 1pm eastern time
1st Race
Selection = #7 North Georgia
5/2 Morning Line
For myself, 1 Unit to Win if 9/5 or greater
8-9 Units to Show
Best Bet
2nd Race
Selection = #7 Valid’s Best
2-1 Morning Line
6 Units to Show
6th Race – on the Turf
Not overboard on this one, more of a “horse to watch” – looking for 4-1 or greater for any Win wager
3 Units to Show
#5 Crush Hard
Saratoga
1st Post is 1pm eastern time
DID NOT FIND MUCH TODAY HERE THUS FAR
(This is the comment to which I refer in the Essay.)
2nd Race – on the Turf
Selection = #6 Ave’s Halo
7/2 Morning Line
4 Units to Show
3rd Race
Selection = #3 Dragonberry
5-1 Morning Line
IF 7/2 OR HIGHER
1-1.5 Units to Win if 7/2 or higher
5 – 6 Units to Show
As you can see in the recap for July 31, 2014, Thursday was a profitable day, including a $10 winner and $34 exacta in the 7th race. Thursday was a fairly typical day in that there were an average of 2 selections per track, (though just 1 at Del Mar, which was a complimentary selection, as were the two selections at Finger Lakes, as whenever I have extra time I try and provide a complimentary selection or two). I have heard from quite a few of the people who subscribe to the handicapping selection service, and they seem to be pleased with the type and number of selections provided.
On the other hand, perhaps I was reading too much into my comment above from August 1, about finding just two selections at Saratoga, but it seems to me “apologetic.” There had been several days with more selections, however on this day having two selections was just how things fell, and it is more common to have an average of about 2 selections per track, as opposed to 3, 4 or 5. I hope that I was the only one who “read into” my comment in that I felt there should have been more selections. But then I remembered Milton and the “less is more” philosophy. Our focus should be to make money, and not to find selections just to have action going. However, from time to time, I have strayed and found more selections than warranted, and in fact when that happens, I do my best to stick to the “quitting winners” philosophy. In fact, if you can find two solid selections at any given track that should be enough “action,” providing they finish in-the-money or win often enough to turn a profit. Our focus should always be profit, though we sometimes do lose our focus.
Let’s return to our two Saratoga selections on August 1, 2014. I wasn’t too keen on the first one, and I recommended just a (reduced) show wager, 4 units on Ave’s. I watched the race, and Ave’s made a powerful move just after the second call, swung out and went after the leader, (Insolvent at that point), in “earnest” according to the chart. Ave’s won and paid a very solid $9.20, $4.60 & $3.30. I was very pleased with the return, although of course briefly chastised myself for not including a win wager. On the other hand, I thought Dragonberry, the other Saratoga selection which was in the 3rd race, was a stronger selection despite his 5-1 Morning Line, plus I believed he was a bargain who was facing weaker competition.
However, I did watch the odds, glancing at them 3-4 times, and Dragonberry hovered around 3-1, once dipped down to 5/2, and at those odds he wasn’t worth a win wager. However, he was still worth a mid-range show wager, and indeed I did follow through on that. I watched the race, and while Dragonberry was behind, (in 6th), in fact he was still in 5th place at the stretch call, but he made a powerful move between the stretch and finish call, and easily held on to 2nd, and the place and show mutuels of $4.50 and $3.10 respectively were fair with the place mutuel being a bit of an overlay.
While it is exciting to watch a race where your selection wins or finishes in-the-money, the thrill of it all shouldn’t overshadow what our main focus, and that is to earn a profit, or in other words, make some money!
Fewer selections may not always be a better avenue, but fewer selections can be easier to manage, (bookkeeping, for example). If fewer selections help you focus more intensely, then that is certainly a plus. When Milton developed his “No Form Spot Play” he averaged about 2 selections per track, continued to focus on show only with % of bankroll wagering, and once again he produced a nifty profit—and what’s not to like about that? Like Milton, we should all find it exciting to be making money at a vocation we really enjoy “sinking your teeth” into.
Any of the above 4 TIPS Report issues discussed in this essay are available PLUS one other TIPS Report issue related to Milton's No Form Method. Singly for just $8.95, with free shipping to the USA, or, if you want to save $, get all 5 for just $29.95, with free shipping to the USA. For S&H for Canada and other countries please email: mary@worthhandicapping.com
And remember, if you don't yet own Show-a-Profit: A Maiden Method, take advantage of a special package of Show-a-Profit, the Sept/Oct 1995 and the Jan/Feb 1997 TIPS Report issues for $34.95 with free S&H to USA; other countries please email mary@worthhandicapping.com for S&H.
If you prefer to order with a Visa or Master Card, please give us a call at 401-921-5158, or you may order with a check or money order, made out to Tom Worth Publishing Co. and mail to:
Tom Worth Publishing Co.
PO Box 7054
Warwick, RI 02887-7054
And as always, we’re here to field any questions or comments by phone or email. For questions on our publications or handicapping related questions please call or email:
Jon Worth
(401) 921-5158
jonworth@handicapping.com or tipsreport@aol.com
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