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Wagering on Big Name Stakes Races
Wagering on Big Name Stakes Races
Aug 30, 2013
The Travers and Pacific Classic, the two most prestigious thoroughbred horse races of the entire summer, just ran this past weekend, August 24th and 25th at Saratoga and Del Mar, respectively. These races, like the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup, along with a couple of others, are television events, and even the casual racing fan will participate.
The Travers draws a huge crowd to the track, in fact attendance in 2013 was 47,597, up 2% compared to the 46,528 who cheered at the 2012 Travers, often referred to as the “Midsummer’s Derby.” Even with the rise in attendance compared to 2012, this was still a far cry from the biggest Travers crowd ever of over 66,000 set in 2003. Even so, suffice it to say, these huge racing days bring a sense of shared enthusiasm during the days leading up to the race, the hype and coverage on race day and as the event unfolds, whether it be the Travers, Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Preakness or Breeders’ Cup.
Every handicapper wants to pick the winner in these huge shared events and enjoy the profits, along with the bragging rights that go with a winning experience. However, as Tim Osterman, acclaimed handicapper, has noted, you don’t get a bonus payoff for handicapping a $14 winner in the Derby; it pays just the same as any 6-1 $14 winning claimer would. Nevertheless, if you are really serious about successfully handicapping a famous stakes race, your main goal ought to be the same one you should have for every regular day you handicap, namely to earn a profit.
We have explored several ways over the years in the TIPS Report, our 24-page bimonthly handicapping publication, on how to earn a profit in these world famous races. One of the first steps in that direction is to avoid getting carried away and caught up in the hype when handicapping these super stakes races. A way to do that is to set a limit on your wagers and focus on the best and most efficient way to earn a profit.
As I noted above, we have discussed several different strategies for these races over the years in the TIPS Report, including a couple of approaches that allow you to have “something going” on a big stakes race, and one or two of these approaches offer the chance at a potentially huge profit with a very small investment. I employed some common sense along with one of my favorite handicapping approaches in the 2013 Travers, and some straightforward handicapping along with the percentages to make a decent profit in the Pacific Classic the following day.
This year’s Travers appeared very competitive to me, and I found that after reviewing the field, it was wide open. The horses in the Travers, (for 3 year olds), are still young and can improve, (or decline), dramatically, often without any real clues. Some fantastic horses competed, including Kentucky Derby winner, Orb. In the end, I reduced my normal wager, and decided that Orb seemed primed and ready for a big effort. However, to be honest, so did several other horses, and I couldn’t narrow down the contenders with certainty. I wanted to enjoy the race and not agonize while doing so, and therefore, I decided on a straight show wager on Orb at about half my normal amount.
As I watched the race unfold, Orb was in the thick of things right from the start, pressing 30-1 long shot Moreno, who led right away for much of the race. Orb doggedly kept the pressure on and moved up to 2nd at the Mile marker, and ever so briefly held 1st at the stretch call, but down the stretch, things changed with lightning speed! Another long shot at 9-1, Will Take Charge, trained by Hall of Famer, D. Wayne Lukas, got involved in a huge way, and he leaped into the fray. In the final yards, with my having a reduced wager on Orb to show, I was able to get involved and get caught up in the excitement, knowing that I could have a win-win experience by watching this thrilling experience, seeing these beautiful athletes run their hearts out, toward a heart pounding finish—but would Orb be able to hold on, (for at least 3rd), with one of the Pletcher horses, Palace Malice breathing down his neck?! Furthermore, two long shots, Moreno and Will Take Charge, both given little chance by the pundits and experts, were proving nearly everyone wrong by battling fiercely for the top spots.
The finish was an exciting one, one my father, Tom Worth, would have called a “blanket finish,” because it was so close, and the margins separating the first four horses was so razor thin. Theoretically you could have thrown a blanket over them, and it would have covered them all. After leading from the first call until the mile marker, Moreno, off at 31-1, settled for a hard fought 2nd place, beaten by a nose by a hard charging Will Take Charge, at 9-1 for the Lukas barn. Shug McGaughey trained Orb, was able to last, but barely, by a disappearing nose over the fast closing Belmont Stakes winner, Palace Malice. The $4.30 show mutuel was a fair return for anyone who backed Orb, although, since the wager was well within my comfort zone, I wouldn’t have dwelled on the outcome for more than a few moments had Palace Malice been able to beat out Orb for 3rd. It was great entertainment!
One of the keys to successful handicapping and keeping an even keel emotionally, especially when these huge televised events are involved, is keeping your money management within your comfort zone. With a race such as this one, where the competition is so keen, and there isn’t a standout, it is best to keep your wagers small.
Of course you have the option to use a higher-risk wagering strategy for a similar amount of money of my conservative show wager. And as we all know, with higher risk comes potentially a greater reward, (although more than doubling your original investment is pretty darn good). We have discussed such higher-risk wagering strategies for stakes races in various issues of the TIPS Report and if you own them, I invite you to review them. At the end of this article, I’ve listed the particular issues in which we discuss stakes races to help you identify them. (If you don’t own them, please visit our website and click into the “Order TR Back Issues” page. Also you may read descriptions of back issues on our “Summary of TR Back Issues”.)
With a very competitive and closely matched field as we had with the 2013 Travers, it makes it a bit more difficult to find a horse with an edge compared to its competition. On the other hand, even in these big racing events, there are times when your handicapping reveals a horse who appears to have a decided edge versus the field he is facing today, and then you may wish to alter your approach.
Case in point, when I handicapped the Pacific Classic Stakes Race at Del Mar the following day, I found it to be a different scenario compared to the Travers. Consequently, I believed it called for a slightly different wagering strategy. After glancing at the past performances for a few minutes, it became clear, (and most likely was to nearly everyone who handicapped it), that this race seemed just the opposite of the very competitive Travers, where there were several closely matched 3 year olds, (competitors beyond the eventual winner and 2nd place horses), including Verrazano, Orb, Palace Malice who were all multiple Grade 1 winners. In addition, both Moreno and War Dancer had won Grade 2 stakes races.
In contrast, the Pacific Classic field was larger, 12 horses compared to 9 for the Travers, yet the Pacific Classic had just a few Grade 1 winners. One of these Grade 1 winners, Game On Dude, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, not only has an almost unbelievable 14 wins in 26 lifetime starts, many of these wins come from Graded Stakes races. Furthermore, in his last 10 races showing, Game On Dude recorded four Grade 1 wins! Dude’s record at today’s distance is fantastic: 4 wins and 3 second place finishes in 9 starts. He also has one second place finish in two tries over the Del Mar oval. Dude appeared to have a decided edge over the field.
Still, many of us handicappers like to dig below the surface a bit and see if we might uncover something that may have gone unnoticed by the betting public. I didn’t uncover anything completely unnoticed, but I was able to separate Game On Dude’s two main contenders. Delegation and Kettle Corn appeared at first glance seemed to be relatively evenly matched, (and indeed, the wagering public sent them off at nearly identical odds, 6.5-1 and 6.4-1 respectively). Playing off the percentages, both seemed worthy of including in the underside of an exacta with Game On Dude. However, was one of these horses also worth a separate wager?
By employing a couple of our Tom Worth TIPS, (handicapping angles or informally known as tipoffs), along with a bit of common sense handicapping, I was able to determine that one of these two horses, namely Kettle Corn, was indeed worthy of an additional, separate wager. Both Delegation and Kettle Corn had good records at today’s distance. However, this was going to be Delegation’s first race over today’s track, Del Mar, whereas Kettle Corn has raced at Del Mar 5 times with 2 wins, 1 second place and 1 third place finish.
In addition, while Delegation’s trainer, Mark Casse, is certainly a very good trainer, his base is Woodbine in the summer, and mainly ships his stock to the southern U.S. in the winter, Gulfstream and Fair Grounds. On the other hand, Kettle Corn’s trainer, John Sadler, is based in southern California and is currently winning 19% of his races, which is a healthy statistic.
My top two contenders faced each other in the Hollywood Gold Cup Grade 1 race in July, and Kettle Corn finished a very close 2nd to Game On Dude. While I kept my exacta of Dude over both Corn and Delegation, I only made a separate wager on Corn. I split a win/show wager on Corn, in a ratio of $1-0-$4 ratio. This simply means that for every $1 win on Corn, I backed it with $4 to show on Corn. Again, I didn’t go overboard as I tend to be conservative yet profit oriented.
Of course, by now you all know the outcome. Game On Dude set a record for the largest margin of victory in the Pacific Classic, simply buried the field to win by 8.5 lengths! Dude returned a fair and square $5.40 to win, $3.80 to place and $3.20 to show. My exacta wager with Kettle Corn returned a decent $27.40 for every $2 wager. I was very pleased with Corn’s $5.60 place and $4.40 show mutuels! Even if my exacta had run out, with this type of wager structure, the show mutuel would have still made it a profitable race for me.
Of course, wouldn’t it be wonderful if all stakes races turned out as profitable as these two did for me. Well, that just isn’t the case, as any handicapper knows. However, you can limit any losses and retain any profits when handicapping stakes races by doing first and foremost your handicapping homework. I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to hone your handicapping skills, always striving to improve upon them. Also, for these big events, you should stick to a wagering budget – we all know how easy it is to get carried away, especially if you are attending the track on stakes race day.
As an aside, we’ve been to Saratoga quite a few times, and my wife Mary told me that once when she went to the window to place her wager, the clerk remarked, ‘oh, you think this horse looks good; I’ll have to wager on him too.” And right before her eyes, he did. I was surprised that the window agents could bet while working, and of course I was surprised to learn he was betting without really knowing how the horse fared against his competition. Handicapping is of key importance!
In conclusion, just because the race is a huge event doesn’t mean the purse strings should be flung wide open. By using common sense and playing the percentages, you can increase the probabilities that you will come out a winner while enjoying these spectacles.
If you are new to Tom Worth Publishing, I invite you to browse through our website to see what we are all about. Also, I invite you to read a description of the TIPS Report on our “TIPS Report - Subscribe” page, click into any of the three subscription options to read the review. To get an idea of subject matter in the TIPS Report, click into our "Summary of TR Back Issues" page.
Our website is a work in progress, and thus we are adding information and new features each day. Even though we’ve been in business since 1956 and are now in our second generation, we’ve finally launched our website in August of 2013! Please visit often to see what’s new! Also, we would love to receive your feedback.
As always, you may call or email me with any questions about our publications or on handicapping in general. Our phone number is 401-921-5158. We’re here most every day except Sunday mornings. You may call up to 9:30 p.m., eastern time. My email is jonworth@worthhandicapping.com. Thank you for signing up for our newsletter!
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The following is a list of back issues of the TIPS Report related to handicapping and wagering on stakes races. You may read their descriptions on our website on our “TIPS Report Back Issues” page.
June 1994
May/June 1995
November/December 2002
March/April 2004
March/April 2005
September/October 2005
March/April 2009
March/April 2010
May/June 2012
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