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Uncoupled Entries: Fertile Handicapping Ground?
Uncoupled Entries: Fertile Handicapping Ground?
Sep 12, 2013
Uncoupled entries: Opportunity or Pass?
As you well know, uncoupled entries are simply races that contain two or more horses who have the same trainer, but different owners, and therefore are entered as separate betting interests. We won’t examine the obvious conflict of interest here or delve into some of the reasons why the racetracks allow separate betting interests for horses conditioned by the same trainer. Suffice it to say that uncoupled entries are here to stay, so why not capitalize on the situation when a positive opportunity presents itself?
We have devoted two issues of our bimonthly handicapping publication, the TIPS Report, to in-depth discussions detailing reasons why it can make sense to make as your selection the perceived ‘weaker’ half of the uncoupled entry. (You may find the more recent article in the May/June 2013 issue of the TIPS Report.) In that article, you will find the reasons when and why it makes good sense to select such an entry. And the payoffs for the perceived ‘weaker’ uncoupled entry can be huge!
While we don't have space here to go over all the reasons cited, we can review a few of them now, in relation to some of my recent selections. Just in the past several days, I was very pleased to have a few longshots on which I had wagered to win and show run in-the-money, longshots who were perceived as the weaker portion of an uncoupled entry.
For example, on Sunday, September 8, 2013, Belmont, 2nd race, Todd Pletcher was training two separate entries in the 2nd race. Rebranded, pegged as the morning line favorite, was one. The other horse was Master Lightning who was 10-1 in the morning Line odds.
Rebranded was bet down from his morning line and went to post as the odds-on heavy favorite at 75-cents on the dollar. In this particular instance, however, there were solid handicapping reasons to make a wager on Master Lightning, the one perceived as the weaker of the two uncoupled entries, as you can see from his 10-1 morning line odds.
First, Master Lightning passed, with flying colors, a dynamite contender screen we introduced in our July/August 2012 TIPS Report.
Second, and much more importantly, Master Lightning was a terrific Fitness Factor selection! (For newcomers, the Fitness Factor is our newest spot play method.)
And finally, Master Lightning’s odds soared ever higher compared to his morning line of 10-1, unlike uncoupled entrymate Rebranded who was bet down below even money. As the gate opened Master Lightning stood at 26-1 odds!
The results? Rebranded, the heavy favorite and perceived ‘stronger’ entry of Todd Pletcher’s uncoupled entry, never got going, broke 6th in a 7 horse field, never made a move and finished 7th, in last place.
On the other hand, Master Lightning broke well, stayed close to the leaders in 4th, made his move, finished strongly in 2nd place at 26-1! Lightning returned $14.20 to place, and a nice show mutual of $8.10. From my perspective, it was a great race!
The winning horse was Bill Mott trained Mosler, 2nd choice in the odds, who went off at just over 2-1. As noted, I was pleased in collecting my wager on Master Lightning, but of course wished in hindsight if I had structured an exacta box with Master Lightening with the two favorites. The exacta payoff would have been $156.00! What do we sometimes say, “Could’ve, Would’ve, Shoud’ve”! But at least I collected on Master Lightning and made a nice profit on the race.
As I noted above, just recently there have been a few instances of uncoupled entries that paid off nicely for me. I will note two more for our discussion. Yesterday, Wednesday, 9-11-13, for our daily selection service, this is what I gave out to our clients:
DELAWARE, 1ST Race
Uncoupled entry alert: #2 #4
Selection #4, Starry Eyed, 5-1 Morning Line
Longshot to watch: #2 Just Got Out, 8-1 Morning Line
Likely favorite: #6 Wendy Wow, 2-1 Morning Line
As you can see from my above alert, the #4 Starry Eyed and the #2 Just Got Out were the uncoupled entries to which my alert referred. Both were Fitness Factor contenders, and Just Got Out also passed the same contender screen as did Master Lightening which was published in the July/August 2012 TIPS Report.
However, here is a dilemma that you will occasionally encounter, and that is while both were qualified selections, Starry Eyed’s trainer was more successful in a couple of conditions showing in Starry Eyed’s past performances. What to do? You could take a portion of your total wager, and if odds warrant it, include a ‘saver’ type win wager on the longshot of the uncoupled entry. Or, just add a few extra dollars of ‘insurance' by wagering a few more dollars if the risk/reward is worth it.
In this case, meaning Race 1 at Delaware, it was a six horse field, and Just Got Out was the longest shot on the board, 15-1. Thus, I made a small win wager on Just Got Out, calculating that if he comes in, the wager should return a lot proportionately. For example, before the race ran, I figured that just a $5 win wager should return about $75 or so. Also, a 3 horse $1 exacta box using the three horses mentioned was a worthwhile investment.
The results? It was quite exciting! Starry Eyed led for much of the way, before heavy favorite, Wendy Wow, at .70-cents on the dollar, grabbed the lead at the stretch call. However, with just two furlongs to go, Just Got Out roared like a locomotive, turned on the after burners and blew right by the two leaders! At 15-1, no less! Just Got Out returned $32 to win, $7.60 place and $5 show.
However, as terrific as that was, the best part was that heavy favorite Wendy Wow easily held 2nd, and the exacta, in a six horse field with an odds-on favorite, returned an excellent $69!
Similarly, in today’s selection service, Thursday 9-12-2013, I gave a third track for free, and here is what I recommended to my clients:
BELMONT, 2nd Race
#3 All Tied Up, 6-1 Morning Line, part of an uncoupled entry
In this race, Race 2, All Tied Up was 6-1 while uncoupled entrymate, Rumblefortheroses, both trained by Todd Pletcher, is the perceived stronger of the two with a 7/2 Morning Line. Again, the perceived ‘weaker’ one, All Tied Up, at 8.3-1 odds, finished ahead of the ‘stronger’ Rumble, at 9/2, 2nd and 3rd respectively. All Tied Up paid $5.10 and $3.70 while Rumble returned $3.10 show.
[Just as an aside, if you’re curious about my other recommendation to selection service clients for today, June 12, 2013, it was again for BELMONT, this time the 3rd Race, a small field, though it did NOT involve an uncoupled entry. It was:
#1 Mei Ling, 5-1 Morning Line
Longshot to watch: #4 Divided Attention, 4-1 Morning Line
Likely favorites:
#2 Guilty, 2-1 Morning Line
#6 Julia, 5/2 Morning Line
Mei Ling, ran 2nd, after leading until the stretch, but the longshot to watch, Divided Attention, won and paid $12.20, while the exacta of Attention and Mei Ling returned $48.80.]
In getting back to uncoupled entries, there are other times when the perceived weaker of an uncoupled entry shows very little, unlike the so-called weaker ones we’ve discussed above. In these instances, depending on what your handicapping uncovers it may still be a good idea to include the ‘weaker’ one in an exacta.
We hope that you find this strategy useful and are able to add it to your handicapping arsenal.
Yours in sport,
Jon
worthhandicapping.com
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1. If you are interested in reading more in-depth articles and suggestions about “Uncoupled Entries”, which feature and discuss the handicapping angles and factors which guided on to his selections, please refer to the May/June 2013 and November/December 2005 issues of the TIPS Report. You can read brief descriptions of back issues on our “TIPS Report Back Issues” page on our website.
I encourage you to take a look, and as you will see, we offer volume discounts when you buy 3 or more back issues of the TIPS Report. For about 95% of the back issues, they are as timely as ever. I have noted in the descriptions which articles I believe are now outdated. There are only a few of them in the 20 years we have been publishing the TIPS Report!
2. In regard to our Fitness Factor spot play, it is very easy and fast to use. Don’t let the fact that this spot play is for maiden races deter you from using this method! As you will read in the description on our website, one handicapper who had avoided maiden races for many years has been experiencing great success with the Fitness Factor. If you know what to look for, maiden races can offer great opportunities. Jon loves to handicap maiden races, so if you ever have a question about them, give him a call or send him an email.
3. If you’d like to see the last several days, or more, of selections from Jon’s selection service, just ask, and we’ll be happy to forward them to you.
Thank you!
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