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Current Odds Can Be Critical To Your Success

Oct 1, 2013

Current Odds Can Be Critical to Your Success as a Handicapper

When you handicap a field of contenders to decide on a selection(s), you must also consider factors other than those relating to horse, trainer and jockey that can have a critical bearing on whether or not you will turn a profit on the race. Profitable handicapping does not rest solely with our ability to isolate live, well meant horses who have a realistic chance of winning or finishing in-the-money in today’s race. The handicapping portion of the equation is just the beginning of your battle.

This week’s newsletter addresses this topic and is Part 1 of a two part essay. In this first part we discuss how current odds can affect your bottom line. Part 2, due out on October 11, 2013, will discuss money management.

As noted, effective handicapping, i.e., knowing when a horse is truly fit and is being ideally spotted by its trainer, is just part of the daily battle we handicappers wage. Depending on how you wager, knowing current odds can be crucial and often can spell the difference between profit and loss. And as we will see in 10 days in our second installment, money management is also a key to earning a profit and can even turn a small profit into a much bigger one, percentage wise.

Let’s now discuss how current odds could influence your wagering strategy so that you can profit from your good handicapping efforts. We’ll examine two recent examples from my daily selection service.

There were three to four days when some of the selections I was giving to clients were going to post at very low odds of about 2-1, 9/5 and 5/2. This situation occurred several times over the course of a few days despite that in almost every instance these selections had longshot Morning line odds of about 8-1, 5-1 and 9/2.

But now here we are at post-time, and these selections, with odds of 3-1 and under, were no longer good candidates for a win bet. So what do you do? If you want to stay in the race, which is certainly an enticing option when you have a strong selection, you need to structure your wager differently. Let’s examine the 2nd race from Philly Park from 9-23-13.

Here is one of the selections I gave my clients from Philadelphia Park on 9-23-13:
Race 2
Longshot To Watch is:
#5 Show Ya Luv - 15-1 in the morning line

Likely favorites are:
#2 Magic Harbor - 9/5 in the ML
#6 Concorde’s Peace ML 7/2

In my email, I noted that the #5, Show Ya Luv, with a morning line of 15-1, was a ‘Long Shot To Watch’, (LSTW). I usually back up longshot wagers with a place or show wager. Long time readers know this, but I mention it so that newcomers to the Tom Worth handicapping family know that this is part of my wagering philosophy.

My LSTW, Show Ya Luv #5, is pegged for 15-1 in the morning line. At those odds, (or any odds over 10-1), I would have made a win/show wager in amount of about 25-30% of my normal wager in a ratio of $1-0-$4, meaning that for every $1 I bet to win, I would have wagered $4 to show.

As you can see, I also noted that the likely favorites were the #2, Magic Harbor, at 9/5 and the #6, Concorde Peace, at 7/2.

Depending on what I’ve got going on for the day, I sometimes do not have access to current odds; however, on this particular day I did. When I checked the odds before placing my bets, with about 5-6 minutes to post time, Luv was at 5/2, (after opening at under 2-1). Luv was a decent horse, but I didn’t think he was as strong as an entry ought to be to be going off at 2-1 or even 5/2, especially to win, and thus, because the odds were so low, I made a much more conservative yet still profit oriented wager by changing my betting ratios so that for every $1 to win, I included $9 to show. I still kept my total wager to 35% of normal. I also made a small exacta wager with the two favorites over Show Ya Luv.

Show Ya Luv’s odds went up slightly in the remaining few minutes before post time, settling at 4-1 as they broke from the gate. He ran a terrific race and was always either close to the lead or actually leading. He came in 2nd place but was Disqualified from 2nd place to 3rd, but did return a decent show mutual of $3.40. Concorde finished 2nd at 5/2, and #2 Magic Harbor, off at just over even money at 1.10-1, managed 4th place.

By altering my wager in a more conservative manner it gave me a greater chance to collect because, generally, lower odds horses pay more to show than longshots, proportionately speaking, (which is a discussion for another time), and I therefore wanted to have more money in the show hole.

Let’s travel north to Belmont Park to look at another selection.

Belmont Park, September 18, 2013
Race 1
#8 Rubindy - 4-1 in the Morning line

Likely favorite:
#3 Storm Swept - 5/2 in the Morning line

For Race 1 at Belmont, I noted as my selection the #8, Rubindy, 4-1 in the morning line. I also noted that the likely favorite was the #3, Storm Swept, 5/2 in the morning line and trained by Todd Pletcher. I planned to make an exacta box of these two along with win/show bets, (70% of normal size), on Rubindy.

This was another day when I was able to watch the current odds. I was a bit baffled by Storm Swept, who was at 4-1 when I checked the odds. I had sized up Storm as a decent selection, but gave the nod to Rubindy, especially with Rubindy’s projected higher morning line odds. I quickly reexamined Storm, and while she did not appear to be as strong a selection as Rubindy, regular Pletcher rider Johnny V. was aboard, and there were other decent signals. I wasn’t ready to abandon Rubindy but held off a bit longer before making a final decision. I checked the odds board two more times, and each time Rubindy’s odds remained low, while morning line favorite Storm Swept’s odds rose a bit higher.

Finally, at last check, about 3 minutes to post, Rubindy was not far north of even money, (8/5), while Swept’s odds had continued to rise, now this time to 6-1. It now seemed to me that the only prudent thing to do was to adjust the original planned wager of win/show on Rubindy to show only, include an exacta box, still with Storm, and make a ‘saver’ win wager on Storm.

In my book, a saver wager means you take a portion of the money you original allotted for the race, say $30 for example, and wager in such a manner that if Storm Swept does win, you would earn a profit, no matter what else happens. At odds of 6-1 you could wager $5 to win on Storm, $23 to show on Rubindy and a $1 exacta box on the two for a total of $30 wagered on this race.

I watched the race, only to see that Rubindy, sadly, was never really in it and finished a disappointing 4th. However, Storm Swept, who went off at odds of just under 7-1, made a bold move in the stretch to zoom by the competition to draw off and win by 2 lengths. Storm returned $15.80 to win, $8.60 to place and $5.20 to show.

For the $30 wager illustrated above, the profit on the race would have been $9.50 which is small, though on a percentage basis, it is about a 31% return on your original investment, which is excellent. My own wager was a bit larger and of course in hindsight, I ask why didn’t I have an even larger wager on Storm, but we know that when it comes to handicapping a race, it is easier said than done. After a bit of initial disappointment, I regrouped and realized it was much better to start the day, psychologically at least, with a profit than a complete loss from the 1st race.

My goal in writing this essay is to illustrate how important it can be in many instances, mainly if you are wagering to win, to be aware of current odds before you make your wagers. Again, for emphasis, you should place any win bets as close to post time as possible so you can keep up with the odds. If your selection(s) is going to post at low odds, you may need to rethink your wagering strategy and quite possibly your selection as well. You need to remain flexible and take whatever steps necessary to stay on the path to your ultimate goal, which ought to be earning a profit.

If you have questions and comments or would like information on any of our handicapping publications or on our selection service, please give me a call or send me an email. I’ll be happy to talk with you. If you are interested in the selection service, I’ll send you a few days of recent selections for you to review.
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