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Enjoy the Breeders' Cup without going overboard!

Oct 31, 2013

I’m sure you are as eager as I am about opening day, Friday, November 1, 2013, of the Breeders’ Cup. As you know, it is one of the most exciting events on the U.S. racing calendar. As has been the custom the last few years, this now two day extravaganza and perhaps the premier showcase of thoroughbred racing’s best and most talented collection of racing talent, (both human and equine), will be held at Santa Anita Park in southern California.

The amount of purse money at stake is truly staggering; it is mind boggling! A jockey winning even just one race in the Breeders’ Cup could supplement his/her pay earnings tremendously. In fact, just one winning ride could be worth the equivalent of much of an average working person’s yearly pay!

Perhaps the only other race that rivals the Breeders’ Cup, and may perhaps eclipse it in hype and attention paid to it by even the average person, is the Kentucky Derby. And if the Derby winner runs and wins in the Preakness, then of course there is a huge spotlight turned on the Derby winner, and during the three weeks leading up to the Belmont, many trees are felled in the ensuing discussion as to whether or not ‘this’ will be the year that we finally have another horse who can lay claim to being the Triple Crown winner. The last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed, was in 1978, so it has been 35 years since this rare feat was last accomplished. Thoroughbred racing, and its’ fans are thirsting for another.

People in general, as well as many of us handicappers, aren’t immune to all the hype surrounding these huge events. Many get caught up in the excitement of the shared event hoopla and hype, but those of us who view our handicapping as a way to earn money should be somewhat wary of all the drama and take steps to avoid getting caught up with emotions running wild, otherwise it could affect your handicapping and especially your wagering strategy. Just as you do with your daily handicapping, you need to have a strategy before these big events. Of course, it’s only natural for us to want to enjoy the celebratory buildup to the big day and want to “have something going” on these big race days; everyone wants to say he/she picked a winner in the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup races.

As a point of interest, Art Baker, a Florida based handicapper, and along with Al Newman, were perhaps our most successful TIPS handicappers ever, of which we’ve known. Art especially has a talent for handicapping the big Graded Stakes races and was generous enough to share some of his astute insights in an in-depth piece he wrote for the March/April 2010 TIPS Report regarding some of the factors he uses to eliminate horses from among his final contenders as well as how he selected some terrific long shots, including Furthest Land, ($44.60), from the 2009 Breeders’ Cup. On November 6 & 7, 2009, he had shared his selections with me among others and also had posted them. One of his standard eliminations is to jettison any horses without Graded Stakes wins. His article explains his thinking and reasoning, and short of handicapping a card with him, reading the March/April 2010 TIPS Report is the next best thing to having a tutorial with him. We don’t have the space to review everything he said here; however, we can explore, briefly, a couple of other ideas on how to avoid going overboard on the Breeders’ Cup.

First, just because this is the Breeders’ Cup, doesn’t mean you need to wager on every race. Stay within your wagering comfort zone! It’s tempting, but don’t step out of your regular handicapping and normal wagering strategies! Two long time New York professional handicappers with whom I was acquainted for some years had a very ‘take it or leave it’ attitude. One of the handicappers often didn’t even watch all the races. The other, in his everyday handicapping was such a handicapping dynamo that during one conversation he mentioned that normally, he never missed a day to work. He handicapped 7 days a week, and noted that the only days he took off were: taking his children to and from college and days like the Breeders’ Cup! He is a huge fan of the thoroughbred animal, just loves watching them, especially in person; however, because of his love for the grace, beauty and athleticism, he, unlike the other NY pro, would usually watch the Breeders’ Cup, but if I remember correctly, he never wagered on any of the BC races.

Now, many of us aren’t that hardened and dyed in the wool as these two professionals, but that doesn’t mean we never wager or should never wager on any BC races; however, we can certainly follow their advice to a degree and make sure we do not get carried away. Art’s approach is a good one in that he doesn’t wager any more on the Breeders’ Cup than he would on a REGULAR handicapping day.

Another approach we have discussed a few times in the TIPS Report came to us from another Floridian, the late Milton Weinblatt. (If you have been a subscriber to the TIPS Report for more than a few years, I encourage you to read the postscript at the end of this article.) Milton was a highly successful handicapper, and for many years he mainly used two approaches. For the Breeders’ Cup, he would focus on one or two of the BC races until he found what he believed was a strong selection or two. And for many years in his daily handicapping, he concentrated his efforts almost exclusively on show wagering. He used this same approach during the Breeders’ Cup. Given the competitiveness and the full fields of the Breeders’ Cup races, a selection that might normally pay $2.60, $2.80 in his everyday handicapping, might return $4 or perhaps even a bit higher for a similarly strong horse in the Breeders’ Cup. Milton figured that if he had one or two selections that paid a generous a show mutuel, then he could make a decent profit. For example, if his first selection came in and returned $3.80 or $4 to show, he might pass on his remaining selections to show. Sometimes he would have a larger show mutuel, $4+, $5+, and then he would wrap things up wagering wise and sit back and watch the remaining BC races for the rest of the afternoon.

However, the plot takes an unexpected turn! About 5 years ago Milton began to employ a new strategy for stakes races, a strategy that was quite profitable for him on numerous occasions, including the Breeders’ Cup. As you know, many of the Graded Stakes races, particularly the Grade 1 races, Breeders’ Cup and Triple Crown races can be extremely competitive and, as noted, have some very large fields. Often, one, (or even two), of the top five contenders will go to post at much higher odds than its morning line and finish among the top four positions. When this happens, the Superfecta payoffs can be enormous. Milton began testing a new idea back in 2008. One of his first reports to us on his new approach detailed a mind blowing payoff he earned from the 2009 Grade 1 Donn Handicap, which ran January 31, 2009 at Gulfstream. The Donn wasn’t the first Stakes race where he tried this approach, but I believe it was the first one we published in the TIPS Report.

Milton’s new wagering strategy was to take the top five ProfitLine selections and box them in the 10-cent Superfecta. You can find the ProfitLine rankings for every race at brisnet.com or twinspires.com. The Twinspires version is usually updated for scratches. The cost of boxing 5 horses in the 10-cent Super is $12. Three of the top four finishers that day, including the winner, Albertus Maximus, went to post at odds of 3-1 or lower, yet the $2 Superfecta payoff was $3,800.40. The presence of just one big long shot was enough to skyrocket the payoff much higher! The return for the 10-cent Super was $190.02, (which meant a profit of $178 on his $12 investment); however, Milton, by this time had collected on a number of Superfecta wagers, and he had decided to double his investment that day, and thus wagered on two 10-cent Super tickets on the Donn, which came in, thus his total return for the $24 outlay was $380.04.

Over the ensuing years, Milton employed this strategy a number of times, and we published several articles on his approach, including his 2012 foray using his 10-cent Superfecta system on Preakness Day at Pimlico. You can get an awful lot of ‘bang’ for your buck with this approach in certain situations, and Graded Stakes races are certainly one. Milton certainly employed his ‘new’ money management approach to such events with great success.

Similarly, in these more recent years, Milton told me that he would pick out a few races where he would use the 10-cent Superfecta in addition to isolating a couple of show wagers. As soon as he collected on a 10-cent Superfecta that was enough to generate a decent profit during Breeders’ Cup day, he generally stopped and would not wager on any further Superfectas. In this way, he was able to ‘have something going,’ but by using this preplanned approach, he didn’t stray from his plan, such as add a ‘wager here, and one there,’ (which does add up!). In fact, when using what we call his “ProfitLine Gold” approach with Stakes races, he often did very little handicapping, but often simply used the top five ranked entries in his 10-cent Superfecta approach. This way, he had little time invested, little emotional investment, and relatively little wagering investment. These factors helped foster a “take it or leave it” attitude and helped him earn, (proportionately that is), terrific profits!

For anyone who might wish to read more about this whole approach, and see how it works, the following issues of the TIPS Report contain in-depth articles on Milton and his “ProfitLine Gold”: May/June 2012, May/June 2011, September/October 2010, March/April 2009 and September/October 2008. We’re putting together a special package of these five issues and will post them on the website later this evening, titling them the ProfitLine Gold Collection. You should soon see it in the menu on the left side of our home page at worthhandicapping.com

You may also be interested in the Road to Profits package found here:
http://www.worthhandicapping.com/road-to-profits-collection.html

If you are reading this on the website, you will have to copy and paste the above address in your browser window. If you are reading this in an email, you may just click into the link.

There is one overlap in TIPS Report issues between the two collections, and if you are interested in both, just call or email me, and you could either substitute a different back issue or I can give you a new price.

We certainly wish everyone an enjoyable and especially profitable Breeders’ Cup weekend! Remember to stay within your comfort zone, do not go overboard and enjoy the spectacle of these beautiful animals, and the incredible athletes they are, (and the jockeys as well). Your goal should be to make and keep a profit!

POSTSCRIPT: If you have been a subscriber to the TIPS Report for more than a few years or so, you certainly know of Milton and his tremendous and consistent handicapping successes. He was masterful and creative in his approach to handicapping and was extremely generous in sharing his strategies and results with us by way of the TIPS Report. And actually, his first report to us is documented in the September/October 1995 issue of the TIPS Report, so he was with us for a good many years. I had the pleasure of talking with Milton on the phone many, many times and also of exchanging emails.

As I noted at the end of our Road to Profits Collection page on our website, (http://www.worthhandicapping.com/road-to-profits-collection.html), I had booked a flight to go visit Milton and his wife in July of 1997 in Atlantic City for both handicapping and pleasure. Sadly, the day before I was to leave, my dad, Tom, unexpectedly passed away and I had to cancel my trip. I have much regret that I never did get a chance to meet Milton and his wife in person. And now, I am deeply saddened to let you know that Milton, at the age of 97, passed away earlier this year. And as I wrote on the aforementioned page on our website, don’t let Milton’s age fool you. He was as sharp as a tack! I very much miss him.

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