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Wagering Strategies for Good Money Management
Wagering Strategies for Good Money Management
Apr 7, 2014
Note: If you haven't received this Newsletter in its' formatted, color enriched form with links, please send me an email to mary@worthhandicapping.com and I'll be happy to send one to you! Thank you! Mary
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Wagering Strategies for Good Money Management
by Jon Worth
"Money Management" is not an especially electrifying subject as say how to win the Pick 6 or the Daily Double. And I totally understand. Money management is just not as dynamic a topic as say the upcoming Kentucky Derby which of course kicks off Triple Crown season. Money management is perhaps one of the more unexciting aspects of handicapping. It certainly doesn’t offer the thrill of seeing your hard-earned 15-1 long shot surge ahead to win at the wire, but as many a professional handicapper knows, money management in terms of how you structure a wager or a series of wagers could very well be the most important component of all for your success as a profitable handicapper.
Now I know many of you are seasoned handicappers, but it’s a good idea to read up on money management especially as it pertains to wagering strategies because good/efficient money management can be crucial to your continued success as a handicapper.
We’ve all read or heard before about many sophisticated nuanced approaches to finding and betting a horse in every race. But let me first tell you this, which is certainly not new news to TIPS Report subscribers:
Your #1 goal as a handicapper should always be TO EARN A PROFIT!! And that often means that you should be prepared to sit out on a few races! You don’t have to wager on every race!
Furthermore, your priority is not necessarily to isolate the horse who comes in first. And it certainly is not about “finding some action!" Again, your #1 priority is to earn money! Money management means holding on to your money and increasing the amount you have by making thoughtful wagers. (As an aside, to subscribe to the TIPS Report please give me a call or visit the TIPS Report page on our website.)
Now I know that for many of us, we handicap because we just love to analyze the races. It’s a pleasure to look over the past performances, follow the trainers, to look forward to a new meet and watching a race unfold, whether on your computer, at a simulcast facility or live at the races. Yes, all of that is certainly enjoyable.
But shouldn’t all of our knowledge and efforts pay off? Yes, of course they should! You could have what seemed like a winning day only to realize you didn’t net as much of a profit as you thought you should because possibly you bet on a couple of races you really shouldn’t have or that your wagering strategy wasn’t a sound one.
Now while I don’t pretend to have all the answers, I do have suggestions in this essay on money management to help you improve your chances at earning a profit.
However, before I write another word, I absolutely stress for you to keep accurate records every day! In fact, if I could, I would require you to keep records. It can be one of the better ways for you to learn which money management/wagering strategies are working for you, and from what types of races/wagers you earn the majority of your profit. Or put another way, maybe there is a type of race/wager where you do not perform well, and by losing in this area, you reduce your overall [potential] profits.
Your records should include: race, track, selection, distance, surface, $ wager along with what type, results, $ won, and notation on selection process used. Of course you can tailor your own recordkeeping; it is just so very important that you do it day-in-and-day-out. It could very well make a difference in how much money you make.
Over the years in the TIPS Report, we’ve discussed numerous topics and ideas about how to “get more bang for your [wagering] buck.” The main portion of this essay will focus on “dutching.” However, before we broach that particular strategy, I’d like to touch upon a few other strategies we’ve discussed in various issues of the TIPS Reports.
For example, we’ve discussed many case studies that involved making a “saver” wager. A “saver” wager is simply a long shot selection that you cannot throw out. A saver wager can possibly help you mitigate a potential loss in a race by wagering on a long shot, so that if the long shot wins, you may still earn a profit even if your main wagers finish out.
Take last week for example, (3-17-2014), there was an excellent case of a saver wager in our daily selection service. My main selection was “Hoppy Do” at Aqueduct. However, I also spotted a “Long Shot to Watch, (LSTW), (which is a term I use in our Selection Service to flag a horse that has the potential to be a worthy long shot, although may not be an extremely strong selection). On this day, the LSTW was “Star of Serava” and was one I couldn’t completely dismiss.
I made a straight wager on Hoppy Do, my main selection. For me, when I have selections going off at under 3-1, I usually, (though not always), make my wager mainly to show. Say your total amount to wager is $20, so then in this instance, you would make a $15 show wager on Hoppy, (off 2-1). The LSTW, Star of Serava, was 5-1 near post time. Just in case, if Hoppy runs out, you could put a small win wager on Servava, say $4, and include a $1 quinella on the two. If Hoppy runs out, you could still have a chance at a profit if Serava wins. In this case, Serava did win, (easily), $11.80 to win. Hoppy ran 3rd, ($2.70 show), so the quinella ran out. However, the “saver” wager alone was enough to ensure a profit, in the event that Hoppy had run out; however, Hoppy did finish 3rd, and as noted above returned a fair $2.70 on the end, so this boosted the total profit higher. As noted the Quinella wager ran out. Perhaps my only other disappointment was that I had thought that Serava might have paid a bit more, ($13, $14) to win. Thus, all in all, Star of Serava was a good example of a “saver” wager.
Through the years in the TIPS Report we have also discussed various exotic wagering strategies such as including a “key” horse(s) when you construct your exotic wager. Now, I realize that so many of you are familiar with the “key” horse concept. But just so we are all on the same page, this simply means that if you believe horse “x” is a strong selection and you want to make an exotic wager, you would “key” horse “x” to finish in 1st place over 2, 3 or 4 contenders that you believe look good in an exacta wheel. You could then place the 2 to 4 contenders to finish in 1st place over your “key” horse “x” in an exacta. You may choose to wager more money on the former exacta scenario, meaning a $2 or $3 exacta key with the stronger “x” horse finishing 1st, and then a lesser amount, say a $1 or $2 exacta, with the other contenders finishing first and your “key” horse finishing 2nd. Thus, if your "key" horse runs as well as your interpretation of his past performances suggested he would, you are combining your contenders in an efficient and cost effective way.
Another wagering strategy we have discussed in a few different issues of the TIPS Report is the “insurance” approach which came to us courtesy of A.Y.C., a New Jersey handicapper. The “insurance” approach, while potentially useful in nearly any race, is probably best suited if “it is a wide open affair,” meaning aside from the Morning Line favorite, (preferably not an especially strong one), the odds on the next group of most likely contenders are long shots, and let’s say you’ve got 4 that look good, say with odds of 6-1 or higher, you would wager a $1 exacta box using the 4 horses for a total cost $12. In addition, perhaps there is a 5th horse who you believe has an outside chance to compete for a spot in the exacta. Let’s say this 5th horse is another going off at long odds, say, 12-1, 15-1, then it could make “fiscal” sense to include this horse in the exacta box, (cost an extra $8, for a total of $20). The point here is if the potential reward is high enough, then it can make fiscal sense to spend the extra money. You are risking a bit more $, but the potential reward is great. Generally, H.F. preferred to “buy the insurance” for his exacta boxes, while, in general, A.Y.C. also used this ‘insurance plan” for trifecta wagers. (For TIPS Report subscribers, please see the Sept/Oct 2001 TIPS Report.)
Long time contributor, H.F. of New Jersey, was a master at exacta boxes. He made dozens and dozens of exacta scores over the years where the exacta payoffs ranged from $80-$100 with many, many falling within the $200-$400 category, and we have profiled a handful of his that paid over $1,000, $1,400! In some of these instances, he made a habit of spending the extra $8 to cover that 5th horse because the potential payoffs were so big and it made great sense to do so.
[In fact, H.F.’s reports were so popular, that we combined them into a package, “Big Prices-Simple How To’s.” You may order any or all of his 10 reports. Save $ by ordering all 10 issues for just $48.95, plus shipping. Call us 401-921-5158 or email us at jonworth@worthhandicapping.com. More details at the end of this essay.]
Let’s now move onto our main topic for this essay, namely “dutching” as a wagering strategy. Likely all of you know what dutching means but because it is the focus of the remainder this essay, we’ll define it just to make sure we’re all on the same page. Quite simply, dutching means that you divide wagers to win among two or more horses in such a manner that if one of your dutching selections wins, you will earn a profit. (For many years, handicappers who followed the Sartin method, including Bert Mayne, one of the Sartin instructors, regularly dutched their win wagers using their top two contenders.) Of course, current odds are extremely helpful because you can use them to accurately calculate your potential net earnings, (your winnings less the cost of your wagers).
It’s very interesting to note that back in the late 1990’s, one of our readers, a Florida handicapper, Dr. Martin, related to me during one of our many talks that he had, on occasion, used the dutching approach in the SHOW hole which surprised me as I had always connected dutching to win bets. Dr. Martin shared several examples from his handicapping when it seemed appropriate to him to use this tactic, and it had proven profitable for him. I then gave it a whirl on occasion and must say that my results were promising though I haven’t made it a practice to do so.
Last August, I had occasion to suggest to a southern California handicapper who had subscribed to our selection service the show wager dutching strategy and splitting it among 3 long shots. I myself did so and structured the wager so that more of the show money was on the one I believed was the strongest of the 3, and a smaller amount on the next and an even smaller amount on the 3rd, (off at 28-1). Two of them finished out, but one of them ran 3rd at a bit over 8-1, and paid $6.40, and thus I made a profit on the race.
Over the ensuing months, I used this strategy on occasion and recommended it a few more times in our selection service. When I checked my records in the late fall, I realized that in the five times I had suggested this strategy every time at least one of the two horses finished 3rd. Better yet, thus far, each time the payoff was enough to ensure a profit.
On Friday, 3-21-14, in the 8th at Aqueduct, in our selection e-mail, I dusted off this approach again:
8th race at Aqueduct on 3-21-2014
This is an interesting race.
The obvious favorite and a decent selection is:
#4 YOUR TIME IS UP
5/2 morning line
Long Shot To Watch (LSTW)
#5 IRISH WHISPER
For myself, I’m including a “Saver” type win wager on #5 as long as he is 7/2 or higher and will include the #5 in an Exacta Box with the #4.
I may also include a dutch show wager with the #4 as long as the odds are over 7/2.
I used to avoid allowance races; however, lately I have been handicapping them a bit more frequently. This was an allowance race, and upon initial handicapping, I believed the #4, Your Time Is Up, was indeed a very decent selection. Though upon a review I began to think the #5, Irish Whisper, was a long shot with a chance. I also noted, that for myself, as long as Whisper went off at higher than 7/2 odds, I would include him in a dutching show wager with Your Time is Up. About 5 minutes to post, Irish Whisper was 9/2 and Your Time Is Up was 9/5. I decided to go with the dutch/show portion of the wager. Whisper went slightly higher in odds as post time neared.
The race was hotly contested, and to my disappointment, the main selection, Your Time is Up, after leading through the second call, was fading more quickly than my high school memories.… However, all was not lost because Irish Whisper, who had been just behind the main selection right from the 1st call, hadn’t given up and was hanging in there. Unfortunately, the “big move” I was anticipating from Whisper never came; however, he doggedly and determinedly hung in there and eventually missed gaining 2nd at the wire by a nose! Whisper returned a decent $4.40 to show which helped me to earn a very slim profit for the race.
The following day, again I noted in the selection email that there was another “show dutching” opportunity:
6th Race At Philadelphia Park on 3-22-2014
This race, again, same new angle/play been following for some weeks:
2 horses show it
#11 Billy One Lite
This horse, is morning line favorite at 5/2
and shows the stronger version of this angle
#3 Brave Tiger shows weaker version of this angle
20-1 morning line
Worth a small exacta box and
splitting 2 units dutching to show, 75% on #11 & 25% on #3.
The #11, Billy One Lite, was not the post time favorite and went off at slightly higher odds, 2.60-1, compared to the actual post time favorite, Drink With Pride, 2.40-1. As noted in selection service email, instead of splitting the dutching wager 50-50, 55-45, or 60-40, this time I suggested 75% of the total wager to show go on Billy. This would mean that with a $20 wagering unit, $15 would go to show on Billy; the remaining $5 would go to show on the #3, Brave Tiger.
Though I do not watch 100% of my races “live”, I do watch replays of most of them. I’m so glad I caught this particular race live because it was certainly an exciting one, which is an understatement! Billy ran a terrific race and led throughout the first three calls of what can be a grueling distance, 7 furlongs. Billy was overtaken in the stretch, but he held on doggedly and never gave way, staying anchored in 2nd place right through to the finish. But the excitement didn’t end there!
As I noted in my emails to selection service subscribers, this angle/spot play that I’ve been crafting has been working very well, although I’ve seen some surprises with it, and therefore, I still wanted to include a portion of the total wager on the other horse, Brave Tiger. Tiger’s odds stayed in the 20-1 range, and at one point, with several minutes left until post-time, was at 28-1 but I had made my wager early bird, and I wasn’t going to change now. I had stopped watching for the last few minutes before they went off, and I changed back just in time to see the horses entering the starting gate. The bell rang, the gates sprung open and I watched.
As noted above, Billy grabbed the lead and held it for the first 3 calls, but Tiger was never far back. As the horses passed the 2nd call, I looked again to see if I’d missed something—Brave Tiger was 50-1!! Tiger ran a determined race and never gave up, and he too managed to finish in-the-money---at 50-1! Even though I hadn’t suggested any win wagers, perhaps my pride fostered some initial disappointment that neither horse had won, and of course the small exacta box thus finished out. However, that disappointment faded quickly when I realized that there would be a decent profit on this race! If you use the $20 figure as 1 unit to show, split 75%--25%, that would mean a $15 show wager on #11. Billy returned $3.20 show or $24. Tiger paid $12.60 show, and thus the $5 portion to show on Tiger returned $31.50. Total return on the $20 show unit is $55.50 and when you deduct the cost of a $20 wager it gives an excellent profit of $35.50!
Of course, not every instance is going to play out like this, but there are times when it can prove profitable, and help you maintain and build your bankroll by following an approach such as this one. It isn’t appropriate for every race, but there are times when it can make fiscal sense to use a wagering strategy such as this. I invite you to share any comments, questions, or feedback you might have on this essay, or any other topics posted on the website.
If you would like to read more about dutching, we devoted nearly an entire issue of the TIPS Report to discuss dutching, (to win), in the September/October 1996 issue. Also, we discussed A.Y.C.’s “insurance policy” in the September/October 2001 issue. If you would like to order either one or both, please give me a call at 401-921-5158 or email me at jonworth@worthhandicapping.com
Also, the following are the details on how to order info on H.F.’s highly successful & profitable handicapping practices.
H.F.’s “Big Prices – Simple How-To’s” package of 10 issues of the TIPS Report include:
Nov/Dec 2001 Significant Pair Longshot Winner!
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I wish you all profitable handicapping!
Jon
P.S. Hello, this is Mary, and I wish to thank so many of you for your thoughtful messages, cards and prayers. They have meant so much to me, truly a blessing. It's wonderful to be getting back to normal. You are a wonderful group of handicappers, and I wish you well! Sincerely, Mary
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