Essay: Dynamite Maidens - November 2015

 

Maiden Dynamite & Successful Exotic Wagering

Scroll down to see $$-exotics-$$ themed TIPS Reports have been added to the Digital Download Library at just $7 each

(Be sure to see the money-saving coupons in this essay - 4 are available.)

Maiden races are, by a few percentage points, the most predictable of all the types of races in thoroughbred horse racing.

Maiden post time favorites win at a higher percentage than favorites in other types of races, YET maidens can be the most fertile ground when you are searching for horses at the other end of the odds spectrum, namely the well-meant long shots that we all love to spot! This essay will focus on how you can capitalize on maiden races.
 
Now of course I am not stating anything new when I note that maiden races are in general easier to handicap. You simply need to know through which pair of handicapping eye glasses you need to analyze the past performances. And one of our most successful Tom Worth TIPS handicappers, the late H.F. (Henry), of New Jersey, an excellent handicapper who cashed huge exotics, ($$-hundreds and & several $$$ and even thousands), with exotic wagering, so much so that every now and then he treated my family to dinner by instructing us to go out to one of the finer restaurants in our area and send him the bill, knew how to “see” the past performances and very much enjoyed handicappingmaiden races.

Henry adapted the TIPS method to suit his own handicapping style, and longtime TIPS Report subscribers may recall that Henry even added a couple of new angles of his own to the TIPS method, (the highly revealing and very potent Well Spaced Out Workout Angle, for one) plus devised what he called the “John Henry” handicapping approach.  (He loved his play on words, while at the same time providing a tip of his ‘handicapping cap’ to his favorite Stakes winning horse, “John Henry.”) 
 
H.F. contributed many articles and ideas to the TIPS Report, (our bi-monthly handicapping analysis newsletter), over the course of about 10 years. He refined his approach ‘down to a science’ and repeatedly connected on long shots and focused nearly all his efforts on maiden races as well as on allowance races for young horses striving to go through their conditions. He combined several Tom Worth TIPS with a few very powerful angles that he developed himself, for a positively dynamite approach to handicapping maidens! 

We have added the TIPS Reports to which Henry contributed to the Digital Download Library at just $7 each on our website so that you can gain terrific pointers and winning angles from Henry.
 
It’s significant to note H.F.’s wise use of breeding information. He focused on the pedigree for the turf and even more he looked to see if the horse had a high breeding figure for the distance of today’s race. In other words, Henry used the breeding information to zero in on horses who seemed best suited to today's conditions. And, in the July/August 2012 issue we added another breeding aspect, that when combined with H.F.’s deceptively simple, but truly dynamite approach can be quite potent, especially with 2 year olds or lightly raced 3 year olds. We’ve also added that issue to the Digital Library
 
In fact, just a couple of weeks ago in our Classic Selection Service, when I combined this breeding information along with H.F.’s Well Spaced Workout Pattern, those 2 handicapping factors combined produced an explosive winner at Woodbine thoroughbred.  And my selection service clients and I were very pleased with the payoffs!
 
Here’s the Woodbine Selection
Classic Selection Service
Friday, October 16, 2015 11:41 a.m.
From: TIPS Report  tipsreport@aol.com

Woodbine Racetrack
1st race – A maiden race for 2 year olds
Selection
#1 Priddy Fair - 4-1 morning line
For myself, planning a 1 unit win wager @ 3-1 or >
and a 6-7 unit show wager
 
Let’s take a look at how the race played out.
 
Priddy Fair, competing in a sprint race carded at five furlongs for 2 year olds, had some terrific positives.
  1. Although she was a first time starter, she had by far the best Well Spaced Workout Pattern, head and shoulders stronger than any other entry.
  2. Priddy Fair’s workout pattern was twice as strong as any other entry!
  3. She was the best selection of the field using the Addendum to the Fitness Factor spot play we published 2 years ago!  (If you own the Fitness Factor, you’ll serve yourself well to order the Addendum. See the info at the end of the essay and is also available on our website.)
  4. When you add the breeding factor to the mix, fully explained in the July/August 2012 TIPS Report, then you are fully prepped and ready to handicap these types of races. Now is the time to prepare for those races carded for young horses, (2 and 3 year olds), featured during the premier winter meets at Gulfstream and southern California—just around the corner, less than 2 months away! Be prepared now, so you can be ready to cash in!
How did Priddy Fair fare?  Boy, was I surprised—because her odds shot upwards, more than doubling compared to her 4-1 Morning Line!
Priddy Fair’s mutuels, were more than fair, as you can see.
$23.60  Win   |   $10.60  Place   |   $5.10  Show
 
Quite often the factors we reveal in the TIPS Reports related to how to successfully handicap maiden races will lead you to one horse, one horse that is a stick out and rates the highest. Of course, it would be wonderful if they all paid as Priddy Fair did-at 10-1! However, the beauty of H.F.’s refined and preferred exotic wagering approach for maiden races, after wagering win place show for several years, proved to be highly profitable for him and was in fact quite inexpensive. With his approach you have the potential to handsomely build your bankroll on a shoestring. You will easily understand why Henry grew to prefer exotic wagering. He literally cashed dozens and dozens of exotic tickets over many years.  He cashed many, many tickets over $100, many, were in the $200-$300 range, and there were quite a number over $500, including more than several over a $1,000 that he shared in ourTIPS Report newsletter. Many of his tickets were not profiled in the TIPS Report, but he would call me whenever he cashed ones over $100. (You can see why he treated us to dinner so often!!) 
 
Seriously, you see, while maiden races on the whole are the most predictable, often they are quite contentious which is why so many steer away from them. But, if you use Henry’s approach, you will often hit on the exacta. I successfully used his approach on just the other day on Nov. 8th in a couple of races Let’s take a look.
 
Classic Selection Service
Sunday, November 8, 2015 8:59 a.m.
From: TIPS Report  tipsreport@aol.com

Aqueduct Racetrack
1st Race
Selection:
#5 Zen Papa – 6-1 morning line
For myself, 1 unit win @ 4-1 or >
and a 3 - 4 unit show not odds dependent
 
9th Race
On the turf

Contentious race. Here's the contenders ranked from strongest to weakest.
I give a tiny edge to #2, Energy Policy - 7/2 morning line
#3 Next Shares – 3-1 morning line
#8 Intensity - 8-1 morning line
#13 Gios Calling – 5-1 morning line
#7 Iambic – 15-1 morning line
 
I am considering dutching:
the #2,  #3  and  #8
and placing a 3 unit win wager on
#2 @ 3-1 odds or >
#3 @ 5/2 odds or >
#8 @ 7-1 or > respectively
and a 5-6 unit show wager on #2

If the morning line holds or rises, I plan a 4 horse 1/2 unit Exacta Box with:
the #2, #3, #8, and #13
and a ½ unit to 1 unit win wager on #7 at 12-1 odds or >
and will also consider top 4 contenders over the #7 in a ½ unit exacta wheel.
 
Let’s take a look at the results for both races.
 
In the 1st at Aqueduct, Zen Papa was a “single” qualifier using the H.F. approach, and thus I recommended a straight wager. Check the results chart, and you’ll see Papa led from gate to wire:
$10.00  Win   |   $4.60  Place   |   $3.50  Show
 
For the 9th race, just as I noted in the email, the finale on the turf was contentious. Indeed, the post time odds were either nearly identical to the Morning Line, or higher as with #3 at almost 5-1, and nearly double the 7-1 odds I asked for on #8 Intensity.
 
Therefore, the Exacta Box was a “go.” I should have noted, that the odds on the #2, Energy Policy, (the morning line favorite and the post time favorite), need not have remained the same or higher. The reason for this is that the favorite is part of the exacta over 55% of the time, and therefore, unless you can absolutely throw out the favorite, you need to spend those few extra dollars on ‘insurance’ by keeping him in.
 
In the end, it would be hard to ask for a better result!
#8 Intensity came on strong and won—at nearly double the odds I asked and paid:
$28.80  Win   |   $13.20  Place   |   $8.50  Show
 
#13 Gio’s Calling garnered 2nd place and paid:
$5.50  Place   |   $3.50  Show 
 
The $1 exacta box returned: $113.75 or $227.50 for the $2 Exacta Box.
  

If you dutched the win wager as I suggested, splitting $3 units, ($6 total bet), you received: $43.20 back from the $3 win wager on the #8

The #2 went off at below my minimum 3-1 odds so no win wager there. The #3 went off at 9/2 but the 1.5 unit win wager ran out but there was still a nice profit of $37.50 on the total $6 win wager.
 
H.F.’s style, and the carefully selected factors he focused on for maiden races, is an elegantly simple and extremely effective approach to maiden races, especially those for 2 and 3 year olds. Furthermore, it can help you cash some fantastic tickets!

Just 1 day like the 9th at Aqueduct where the win wager paid$28.80 for the #8 Intensity and just a 1/2 unit Exacta Box paid$113.75 using the $2 base bet unit I suggested, which produced aprofit of $123 or just a day like the 1st at Woodbine on 10-16-2015 where the selection #1 Priddy Fair paid $23.10 to win and using the suggested $2 unit base bet wager produced a profit of $36 - just a day like these would pay for 2 months of the new weekend selection service option or just 2 days like these would more than pay for 2 months of either one of our monthly plans - the Classic Service or the Best Bets Service - and with profit leftover! Check it out!
 
We invite you to take a look at the growing # of downloadable handicapping items through this link.

There you will find the downloadable TIPS Report issues that feature H.F.’s handicapping angles and wagering approaches. Each will be well WORTH it to you!

 

If you are interested in learning more about our two selection services, we invite you to choose one or both of our weekly trial plans or try our new weekender plans.  And of course we have monthly plans and longer. Here’s the links for:

The Classic Selection Service
The Best Bets Selection Service
 
And here are the links for:
The Addendum to the Fitness Factor, (only of value if you already own the Fitness Factor)
The Fitness Factor & Addendum combination
 
Have questions or would like to discuss a topic with Jon? Please give him a call at 401-921-5158 before 9:30 p.m., eastern time. Also, keep in mind he is handicapping most mornings. You may also email him at tipsreport@aol.com orjonworth@worthhandicapping.com
 
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