Essay: Advice for the Breeders' Cup 2018
    

As we immerse ourselves into the 2018 Breeders’ Cup World Championships, I’d like to share with you a bit of general advice as well as to remind you of our Breeders’ Cup service and offer a special promotion for our Best Bets Service. Let’s start with the advice and observations!


The Breeders’ Cup World Championships has become one of the most publicized and highly anticipated events of the U.S. thoroughbred calendar year, possibly second only to the Triple Crown.

What began as a one day event in 1984 by a group of thoroughbred horse breeders whose mission to showcase the “best of the best” in horse racing attracted the finest equine athletes to compete in high class races, some with seven-figure purses, has since grown into a two-day renowned international event that proves to the world why horse racing is revered as the “sport of kings.” Indeed, the Breeders’ Cup celebrates the best of horse racing and what it takes to be a world class thoroughbred champion.

Many highly competitive races are packed into the two day Breeders’ Cup event, each with its own set of information to analyze. As we’ve emphasized so many times when highly publicized racing events are on the calendar, when you’re thinking through your contenders in the various races on Friday and Saturday, it’s important to focus on your goal for making a profit rather than on the excitement and fanfare that naturally surround the Breeders’ Cup. It’s understandably easy to be in awe of the esteemed trainers and their impressive entries who have proven their worth for a spot to compete in these elite races, as well as to get swept up in the speculation over the prospects of the new trainers and horses making their hard-earned debut on this world stage.

THIS is where restraint, discipline and focus are especially important. We are no longer in our father’s or grandfather’s world of horse racing. Technology has made wagering on the races available to millions more people than in the 1970s. In addition, there are a greater number of high class stakes races, ones that are easily and more readily followed by so many more people than just handicappers which inevitably heightens the level of publicity and hoopla for the richest and classiest event of high class stakes races ever conceived. This is even so for the summer meets such as Saratoga. If you went to the Saratoga meet in say the early 1990s, you would have a pleasant time strolling around the grounds in a leisurely fashion, enjoying not just the races but the people watching and the beautiful grounds. Fast forward to today and on any good weather weekend you would be hard pressed to find a spot to sit on the grounds or to stand at the rail. 

Mind you, I’m not saying this as a negative. On the contrary, it’s wonderful to see such a strong interest and appreciation for the races. My point here is that you can’t get swept up by the hype and excitement. You are the handicapper, and you know the field! Just as a thoroughbred does at times, you may need to have blinkers to screen out the buzz!

Just as we do in our daily handicapping, we must evaluate each race relative to its own unique conditions and each entry relative to whom their facing today. Wager according to your norm. If you normally wager say 10% of bankroll, do just that. Don’t wager more just because it’s a super exciting race. Don’t feel you need to be in on every single race. If a race is too competitive in that there is no one horse who clearly has an edge, it’s okay to pass. Or, if you want to have something on a race that has two or three horses that look really good, you can always dutch, or put a few dollars on your top two to three contendrs to place or show. Or use the strategies in our Breeders' Cup Stakes races issues, and use one scientific strategy from said issues to keep your wagers small, but still employ these effective and inexpensive approaches to exotic wagering!  You can get an awful lot of 'bang for your small bucks' layout using these approaches.Do not go hog wild! When you collect on winnings, put a good percentage of aside - don’t touch it – unless it’s to buy something special for your sweetheart!

As a way of background on our service, we started our Breeders’ Cup selection service in 2016, the same year we first offered selections for the Triple Crown. There was an excellent profit that year for the Triple Crown as our top four contenders finished in exactly the order I gave out: Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mohaymen) and also combined for the Superfecta. (Cost of boxing a 10-cent Super for 4 is $2.40 which left a hefty $51.81 in profit.) In 2017 we included the Kentucky Oaks as a complimentary bonus, with our selection Abel Tasmin coming in for the win to pay $20.40 we enjoyed an excellent start to Triple Crown season which had a huge profit overall in that year. We had the $96 exacta in the Preakness.

In 2018 our Triple Crown service had a wonderful jump start thanks to the winner and exacta we had in the Kentucky Oaks which served to move the profit train out of the station. Our service had the winner and exacta in the Kentucky Derby, and many of you were kind enough to write or call me about it. There was a loss in the Preakness, but even though our main selection ran out in the Belmont Stakes, thanks to the exacta we suggested including Gronkowski, there was a profit for that third leg and thus a terrific profit in three of the four races of Triple Crown season, as we are including the Kentucky Oaks.

We certainly recognize that many handicappers wish to do their own work for reviewing and analyzing the past performances for the Breeders’ Cup. There is a great deal of enjoyment in pouring over the information and details on the horses and trainers and in weighing all the handicapping factors. Just as our Tom Worth logo indicates, as handicappers we are detectives looking for clues within the past performances as to which horse is fit and ready to compete. Normally here we say and who has a trainer who shows the signals of serious intentions for his or her horse to win. HOWEVER, this is the Breeders’ Cup, and I would say it’s safe to assume that in most cases just the fact that he or she has a horse entered, shows serious trainer intentions! Meaning, these will be highly competitive races on all fronts!

Because of that, even if you do do your own handicapping, you may still benefit by subscribing to our Breeders’ Cup selection service, only to compare your selections with ours. Sometimes by doing so, you may see something you might have overlooked or you may find confirmation through comparing. Our number of subscribers to the 2017 Breeders' Cup nearly doubled compared to 2016, and that was partly because some handicappers wanted input from another source to help them find their contenders and eventual final selections. Or, you may want to order our downloadable handicapping and wagering strategies for very budget-friendly prices.

In addition to the Breeders’ Cup Selection Service and the downloadable strategies, we also offer a daily Best Bets Selection Service. As the name implies, it’s a more selective, less action-oriented, service than our daily Classic Selection Service. The last 7 selections for the Best Bets service produced an excellent return:

1. Offering Plan       $4.70   $3.10   $2.30  (25% roi)

2. Defiantly             $3.80   $2.60   $2.10  (12% roi)

3. Lion IN Wait         $7.10   $2.90   $2.20  (90% roi not including suggested exacta which came in)

4. Princess Ashlyn     --       --          $3.40   (37% ROI)

5. Valiant Flame       --       --          $2.10   (Minus 5% roi)

6. Joe Joe’s Kingdom   --       $2.80    $2.40   (25%ROI)

7. Annie’s Candy      $4.60  $2.80    $2.40   (25%ROI)

The ROI’s which are listed reflect my suggested $ management for each race.  I tend to be a bit more conservative than many handicappers, and thus a more aggressive approach, (win only, or win-place) produced higher profits, for example win ROI on the above cycle of best bets returned 44% roi.

Consider subscribing to our Best Bets service. We’ve taken off 50% off current subscription fees. Check it out here.

Please click here to contact us

Jon Worth  Tom Worth Publishing Co.  PO Box 7054  Warwick, RI 02887-7054

401-921-5158 eastern time  ♦  jonworth@worthhandicapping.com

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