As way of a background, R.S. had generously shared a few other Even Finish selections that paid “phone numbers” including one I missed on October 4th at Laurel. I was visiting my daughter that weekend at her college up north and didn’t handicap at all that Saturday. However, he generously showered me with a few e-mail reports including an Even Finish spot play single qualified selection that day from the 2nd race at Laurel, Sky High Honey, which paid $35.20 for every $2 win ticket—in a 6 horse field. A few days later, by handicapping with the Even Finish, he scored another Grand Slam with Wild Brassy at Finger Lakes who galloped home as a $64 winner!
Now for the new news! We have more terrific reports to share. R.S., along with other handicappers, have alerted me a good number of times to big payoffs including several huge boxcar winners they isolated by using the Big 4 Plus 1 spot play, as well as two monster payoffs in less than two months. The Texan was once again kind enough to share one from the opening weekend at Belmont’s 2014 fall meet, September 7th, which we profiled and discussed in detail in the Sept/Oct 2014 TIPS Report, our bimonthly handicapping publication. This particular Big 4 spot play selection was another ‘single qualifier,’ simply meaning it was the only entry in the race who passed the Big 4 contender screens, which are very easy to follow and are most effective when only one entry in the race qualifies such as the one R.S. isolated at Belmont. (We do include a few easy to follow tiebreakers in the event there is more than one contender; the step-by-step instructions are straightforward and useful for such occasions.)
The selection R.S. excitedly shared with me the following morning, Monday, September 8, 2014, was truly another bombshell—it returned $112 to win for every $2 win ticket! In addition, his Big 4 Plus 1 selection keyed a $1,244 exacta! As enormous a long shot as a $112 winner is, it is not the largest submitted to me by our handicapping readership for our Big 4 Plus 1 spot play—V.S., a midwest handicapper, cashed, (to my knowledge), the largest winning mutuel on a Big 4 selection to date---$163 for every $2 win ticket!
Here is a copy of V.S.' e-mail to inform me of his Big 4 “$163 windfall!”
Mon, 29 Jul 10:59:50 - 0700 (PDT)
From: xxxxxx
Subject: Big 4
To: "tipsreport"
Hi Jon just letting you know I just hit the highest odds horse for me ever, how's
80-1 in the 2nd race at Delaware sound.....it's a down 2 with the trainer
......wow you’re the best....
This could be you!
V.S. was kind enough to share his insights and the selection in the July/Aug 2013 TIPS Report. As you might imagine, that particular issue is one of our most popular in our 21 year span of publishing the TIPS Report. (Its popularity rivals Milton Weinblatt’s first report on his live play 3-week stay in Las Vegas where he more than doubled his bankroll wagering to show using our very popular Show-a-Profit spot play. In addition, the popularity of the Jul/Aug 2013 issue has now nearly matched another reader favorite, namely the July/August 2005 issue which reports on our one-week stay in Saratoga where we taught our then-3rd grade daughter the basics of handicapping which she then used conservatively, but smartly, and doubled her very own bankroll, thus affording her a trip to one of the used bookstores, and also enough to buy some souvenirs in Saratoga.)
Those who have written/called/emailed me thus far in regards to the Big 4 have fallen into 1 of 3 categories for their wagering.
Category #1
V.S., the midwest handicapper referred to above who cashed the $163 whopper of a winning ticket, had sent me his selections for about a two-week period. He explained that while it was certainly a thrill to cash the winning ticket on a long shot, he preferred to wager win/place/show on his Big 4 selections so as to avoid run outs. After using the method for a bit, he noticed the Big 4 selections finished in-the-money a high % of the time. Thus, he found that by spreading his original win wager over win-place-show, his profit was excellent and the run outs were shorter. For his new Big 4 wagering strategy, he backed up his win wager with a larger place one, and the place wager with a yet larger show wager. You can fine tune this yourself if you like, but a ratio similar to $3-$9-$12, where $3 represents 1 unit, suited his $$$ goals and also gave him peace of mind.
Should you decide to adopt something similar you can fine tune it here and there, especially if your Big 4 selection is going off at “super long shot odds” of about 20-1, 25-1 or higher. Sure, if your Big 4 selection pays say $16 to win, it feels nice to cash a win ticket. However, the handicapper referenced here found there were many times when his horse ran 2nd and paid something like $6.20 place and $3.80 show, or even a bit higher of $7.20 place, $4, $4.40 show, and he was appreciative of his new Big 4 wagering strategy. Occasionally the horse may only finish 3rd and pay $3.80 or $4.20 show, and that may not earn a big profit, but likely still make a bit or break even, which is much better than a big $ loss. And yes, there were times when he sacrificed a bit of profit, but his newer way of money management allowed him to enjoy handicapping much, much more.
Let’s crunch some numbers to illustrate V.S.’s preferred wagering strategy for the Big 4, and outlined above. Using the above ratio of $3-$9-$12 and payoffs, if V.S.’s Big 4 horse didn’t finish 1st, his total return on the a $24 wager would be $51.60, a terrific profit percentage wise on the original wager. If the horse won, so much the better! If you see fit, you can adjust the ratios a bit to account for fluctuations in current odds compared to Morning Line. For example, let’s say a horse with a 6-1 morning line is bet down to 7/2, 4-1, and thus you might want more $ on the place or show end. Conversely if the Big 4 selection went off at say 10-1, 12-1 or higher, you might want more $ on the win or win/place slot, but to the best of my recollection, V.S. stuck with his outlined plan and didn’t try and micromanage that portion of his handicapping. And during the weeks I witnessed his selections, he made out just “fine,” (actually much better than fine as he cashed a few large exotics too).
If you hit just one $3 or $4 win wager on a Big 4 selection that pays 10-1 or 12-1, or just a fraction of 80-1 you will more than pay for the method. Moreover, you will possess some of the knowledge that can help you hit some terrific long shots and solid selections!
Category #2
In addition to V.S., we have profiled the results of other Big 4 Plus 1 handicappers in the TIPS Report including some fascinating insights from Joe B., a New York handicapper who took a different approach when handicapping with the Big 4 suggesting exotic wagering depending on the odds and contenders. He gave us a perfect example when he dissected a race at Philly Park by using the Big 4 which keyed an enormous exotic as a result. We profiled that bombshell, including a huge winner, which keyed some enormous exotic payoffs in our Nov/Dec 2010 TIPS Report.
Category #3
Let’s now return the discussion back to our generous Texas handicapper, R.S., who prefers yet a different type of wagering approach, win betting. He has kindly updated me several times on his handicapping forays using our Big 4 and Even Finish spot plays along with a couple of our other methods, on a semi-regular basis, and in fact, here is his e-mail from Breeders’ Cup day:
R---@-----.com
Sat, Nov 1, 2014 5:46 pm
Jon,
Had 12 plays today using big4 only, 2nd and 3rd after.
Invest $20x12. $240
Win return $364. 47.7%roi
Place return $278. 14.6%roi
Show return $250. 3.8% roi
Great return on win betting, as usual!
R.S. also noted that instead of using the different contender screens as outlined in the Big 4 method for the previous few days, he was trying out a different approach, and was focusing on just one contender screen. As you can see from the above e-mail report, to say it was “working out well” would be an understatement! Also, as you can see from the 5:46 pm time stamp on Breeders’ Cup day with the races from California still going strong, I still had one or two Breeders’ Cup races to follow. However, I did reply immediately to congratulate him on the terrific rewards he earned through his handicapping work! However, as the old saying goes, “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet,” I was in for a big surprise—as a phone call on Monday morning from R.S. provided news of an additional, huge profit from his Saturday Big 4 selections!
Early on Monday, November 3rd, I had a very excited Texas handicapper on the telephone line when I picked up the receiver! It seems that with the Breeders’ Cup lasting late into the evening, (at least by east and midwest time) on Saturday, our Texas handicapper still had one last Big 4 selection from the finale at Hawthorne. Normally, the 9th at Hawthorne would have run earlier, but with most handicappers focused on the Breeeders’ Cup, a number of races at other venues besides southern California, the 9th at Hawthorne ran about an hour or so later, (after 8 p.m. eastern), than usual, over 2 hours after he had sent me his recap of his Big 4 selections.
Well, the news was worth the wait. His Big 4 selection in the finale at Hawthorne, Ikaros, went off at 26-1! I don’t handicap the midwest tracks very often but after I was alerted by R.S., I of course downloaded the past performances to take a look. I found that a full field of 12 went to post to contest a $5,000 price tag in a bottom level claiming race carded for 1 mile 70 yards. I examined the race, and there were 3 entries which passed the Big 4 contender screens. However, as noted earlier, a few days before this race, in an effort to streamline his handicapping, (he looks at numerous tracks per day), R.S. had begun using only 1 of the Big 4 screens, (the one he believes is the strongest), and thus bypassed Morning Line favorite Bambazonki who passed one of the other screens, and thus the favorite was not on R.S.’s radar. (As a brief aside, whenever he finds two Big 4 horses, he nearly always goes with the higher odds entry. Since Bambazonki went off at under 2-1, he would have passed on him regardless of the contender screens.)
That left 2 horses who passed the one Big 4 screen R.S. used: El Deputy and Ikaros. Now, a good spot play method can help you quickly whittle down the field, and often you will find a “single” such as R.S. had on an earlier date, September 7, 2014, when he had used the Big 4 to handicap a race at Belmont. When only 1 horse qualified in that particular race, he was rewarded handsomely with a $112 win mutuel. However, there will be times when you are faced with 2 or perhaps 3 Big 4 contenders in a field. In such cases, you can easily employ one of the tiebreakers of the method. (In fact, even if R.S. had been using all the contender screens that comprise the Big 4 and considered Bambazonki as one of his final 3, the result would have been the same: the first tiebreaker of the Big 4 eliminated both post time favorite Bambazonki and the other Big 4 contender, El Deputy. He was left with just one Big 4 contender standing: Ikaros.
The tiebreakers included in the Big 4 method nearly always will eliminate other contenders and leave you with just one horse which of course is the ideal. As noted, after speaking with R.S., I immediately examined the past performances, found that he had handicapped the race perfectly, using the Big 4. As noted above, the first tiebreaker would have eliminated the other two contenders quickly. And of course, I was excited for him, and chomping at the bit to look up the results, which I did in two shakes of a lamb’s (or in this case, horse’s tail). The results were nothing short of astounding. Wow!!
Ikaros was far back early, (10th position), and remained there until the ½. Shortly thereafter, according to the chart, “he circled foes with a sustained 4 wide run to gain a clear advantage mid-stretch and was kept to the task.” Rather “drily” phrased, as in just two calls Ikaros vaulted from 10th to 4th to 1st by 2 lengths and increased his margin slightly to win by 2 and ¾ lengths. However, I would add he bested all other 11 horses, including the well bet favorite and did so at 26-1!
Ikaros returned:
$55.40 win
$30.80 place
$15.20 show.
I exchanged a few e-mails with R.S. after I examined the payoffs and here is one of them:
Mon, Nov 3, 2014 11:38 pm
Re: FH
TO: ----
FR: TIPS Report
Good evening,
It was very enjoyable catching up with you today. Thank you again for your call, and also for keeping me updated. I did check out Ikaros, indeed qualified for the ACE, and I want to congratulate you on an excellent day and a profitable one too!
{after cashing in on the finale at Hawthorne}, Your ROI to show on Sat. nearly tripled to just over 9%, and your ROI to win leaped ever higher! far above 47%, great job!
I am tied up tomorrow on other matters nearly all day, but I did glance at Parx Racing for Tuesday, 11-4. Check out 2nd race, Parx, #4 Fabs passes the same Big 4 screen (you have been focusing on), and has the 'ACE.'
Take care, and I'll be in touch.
Jon
Fabs was the only selection I found after scanning Parx racing on Monday evening, November 4, 2014. Alas, it was not likely to be a long shot, but I viewed it as a Best Bet. I wasn’t able to watch the race live, but I did watch the replay, and Fabs did not disappoint! He was stalking in 2nd place early, leaped ahead at the ¾ mark to assume the lead, and then poured it on in the stretch to win by 6 lengths! He paid $5.40 $3.60 $2.80, all very fair and square Best Bet type mutuels, especially in a 7 horse field. The longest shot on the board, Interupt, at 21-1 held onto second and the exacta returned $77.
As we were editing the final stretch of this complimentary essay, (December 12, 2014), there were two Big 4 selections at Laurel in our daily selection service.
Here’s the email I sent:
Fri, Dec 12, 2014 10:51 am
re: selections 12-12
Laurel
1st Race post 12:35 p.m.
1st selection
#4 Notably Awesome
8-1 mline
Self, planning 1 unit win if 6-1 or >
2 unit show
(regardless)
3rd Race apprx post 1:20 p.m.
Race is wide open
4 contenders, possible exacta
in order of preference
#5 Cotten 4-1
#3 Quality Rose 10-1 mline
#8 Colonel Melissa 5/2mline
#7 Valid Aim 8-1 mline
if you don't care for exacta,
Self, still planning on 1 unit win ( on #3) if 6-1 or >
2.5 unit show regardless
5th Race apprx post 2:10 p.m.
selection
#5 On the Whistle
3-1 mline
Self, planning 7-8 unit show
For Race #1 and Race #5 at Laurel, (12-12-2014), the selections were both Big 4 horses. In Race #1, the selection was an “automatic” selection, meaning that if the horse qualifies for 2 of the outlined criteria, it can be an ‘automatic’ selection without any further handicapping – you can arrive at a viable selection quickly and easily. This was a very exciting race, although because the horse was bet down to 4-1, I passed on the win wager on #4, Notably Awesome, and decided instead to use the $ earmarked for the win to make an exacta box with the 3/5 post time favorite. Awesome, #5, led for nearly the entire race. As the horses entered the stretch drive, the 3/5 favorite angled out and began to run in earnest closing ground steadily. However, Totally Awesome dug in, and determinedly held off the closing heavy favorite.
Payoffs:
The #4 paid: $10.40 $4.80 $3.20
The #5 (Senorita) paid: -- $2.40 $2.10
The Exacta paid $24.60 for $2
The 5th at Laurel featured another Big 4 selection, #5 On the Whistle. Whistle was 3-1 in the Morning Line, and for myself, I decided the best way to approach this was a show wager. Whistle led until deep stretch, at 2-1, was overtaken in the final yards. However, Whistle did complete a very nice exacta, $174.80 and returned $2.40 place and and a more than fair $3.20 show.
There was one other Big 4 selection today, (12-12-2014), the 7th at Tampa Bay Downs, a Todd Pletcher trained entry, #8 Little Nellie. It too was an exciting race, and Little Nellie prevailed under heavy pressure from another Pletcher trained horse, #1.
Nellie returned: $7.60 $3.60 $3.00
The all “Pletcher” trained exacta was $33.40.
Of course Big 4 Plus 1 selections aren’t going to win every race, but they tend to be very consistent horses who frequently go off as long shots, (minimum of 7/2 odds, but also more than occasionally will go off at 8-1, 10-1, 12-1, and sometimes, as you can see, even higher!).
As a way of info, The Big 4 Plus 1 method keys in on horses who finish in-the-money about 90% of the time and may be used in many types of races and is thus not limited to certain kinds of races, such as ‘maiden’ or just claiming races, nor is it limited by distance. Some spot plays suggest sprints only, or others specify route races. The Big 4 Plus 1 method makes for an excellent addition to anyone’s handicapping portfolio and is a powerful, yet versatile method. It was rated highly, (an ‘8’ on a scale of 1-10 by the Phillips Racing Newsletter), and is a method that isolates many solid, well meant horses ranging from even $ to about 5 or 6 -1. As you can see, it also finds more than its share of long shots, 10, 15, 20-1, and occasionally much higher!
To order just the Big Four Plus One Method, please click here. Should you want to add extra items to your order, take a look at the packages below. We have 3 specific long shots packages listed.
Big Four Long Shots Package #1 (Please click here to order)
This package includes The Big Four Plus One Method plus you may choose any one of our other methods EXCEPT for The Even Finish Method. This pack is for a very special price of $44.95 plus $3.95 S&H to USA.
Big Four Long Shots Package #2 - "The Trifecta" (Please click here to order)
The Trifecta Pack includes the Big Four Plus One Method AND the following related 3 TIPS Reports:
- Nov/Dec 2010 where Joe B. of New York analyzes a huge superfecta “keyed” by using the Big Four Plus One.
- Jul/Aug 2013 where V.S. shares his insights how he used the Big Four to wallop a ‘grand slam’ $163 winner out of the park—read how!
- Sept/Oct 2014 where our Texas handicapping friend takes us step-by-step through a race at Belmont, where the only possible Big Four selection won at over 50-1 returning $112 for every $2 win ticket!
This pack is $54.95 plus $4.95 S&H to USA.
Big Four Long Shots Package #3 - The Value Added Option (Please click here to order)
This package includes the Big Four Plus One Method AND a One-Year Renewal or Subscription to the TIPS Report plus $2.95 S&H to USA.
This pack is $97.95 plus $2.95 S&H to USA.
Long Shots Package #4 - "The I want all of the above" (click here to order)
This package includes The Big Four Plus One Method plus you may choose any one of our other methods EXCEPT for The Even Finish Method. When you order this package on the website, you will be instructed to write in your choice for the 2nd spot play.
Plus, you will receive the following related 3 TIPS Reports:
- Nov/Dec 2010 where Joe B. of New York analyzes a huge superfecta “keyed” by using the Big Four Plus One.
- Jul/Aug 2013 where V.S. shares his insights how he used the Big Four to wallop a ‘grand slam’ $163 winner out of the park—read how!
- Sept/Oct 2014 where our Texas handicapping friend takes us step-by-step through a race at Belmont, where the only possible Big Four selection won at over 50-1 returning $112 for every $2 win ticket!
And, you will also receive a one-year renewal or a new subscription to the TIPS Report. This is an incredible offer for the TIPS Report, one that may not be repeated anytime soon, not even a year from now!
This entire pack is $147.95 plus $4.95 S&H to USA.
(If outside the USA, please email mary@worthhandicapping.com for S&H. Thank you.)
Recommendations for you
Be sure to take a look at some of our handicapping methods and systems such as:
1. The Fitness Factor which is terrific for isolating horses who come in from behind;
2. The Even Finish which averages 6 plays per day per track 73% in-the-money finishes, 30% Win & 50% Place with average Win mutuel of $10.02, on average;
3. The popular Show-a-Profit;
4. The acclaimed Place-to-Win for Routes and Place-to-Win for Sprints;
5. The Only One II which is ba5.sed on the highly renowned POPS & TIPS method; and
6. The timeless and extremely valuable TIPS Update,
7. We strongly recommend a subscription to the TIPS Report to keep your skills sharp and knowledge base strong.
8. If you are new to "Tom Worth" we strongly recommend the Ultra-Deluxe Pro Pack which is comprised of many of our methods and services - you will find it well worth your investment!
9. If you don't have time to handicap as much as you would like, take a look at Jon's Selection Service.
If you prefer to order with a check or money order please make it payable to Tom Worth Publishing Co. and mail to:
Tom Worth Publishing Co.
PO Box 7054
Warwick, RI 02887-7054
And as always, we’re here to field any questions or comments by phone or email. For questions on our publications or handicapping related questions please call or email:
Jon Worth
(401) 921-5158
jonworth@handicapping.com or tipsreport@aol.com
